Beiyang had two major tendencies: "Pro-German" and "Japan-wise." Within the Beiyang Army, Germany had helped establish the military system, a cooperation that dated back to Li Hongzhang's era. During Yuan Shikai's Xiaozhan training period, he had hired numerous German officers as instructors, and military manuals were mostly translated from German works. Additionally, many officers in the Beiyang Army had graduated from Japanese military academies; while Beiyang couldn't be called pro-Japanese, their understanding of Japan made them confident in dealing with the Japanese.

As early as the Boxer Rebellion, Yuan Shikai had cooperated extensively with the Germans in Shandong, and overall, Germany was considered relatively friendly toward Beiyang. After Yuan Shikai seized central power in 1909, the German Minister immediately cabled Germany: "Yuan Shikai must be supported, for only he is the guarantee of stability."

Now that the German Minister had come to visit in person, Yuan Shikai knew it boded no good, but he could not refuse to see him. After some initial pleasantries, the Minister went straight to the point.

"Your Excellency Mr. President, the funds from our Arnhold, Karberg & Co. (Ruiji Yanghang) have recently arrived. I wonder when the President intends to sign the agreement," the German Minister asked.

Since Germany's Deutsch-Asiatische Bank was under government management, the Minister provided financial support to Yuan through Arnhold, Karberg & Co. in Hankou. Germany had originally been prepared to lend Yuan £300,000 at low interest without a discount, but after Yuan received support from the People's Party, he had temporarily weathered the crisis, and the loan had been frozen.

"Are we not currently discussing the quota trade agreement?" Yuan Shikai replied skillfully.

"Your Excellency, isn't the quota trade agreement led by the People's Party rebels? Does the President intend to follow the advice of rebels?" The German Minister emphasized the word "rebels" heavily.

Hearing this, Yuan Shikai could guess that the German Minister intended to intimidate and threaten the People's Party. If the Germans actually did so, Yuan would welcome it. However, the situation was now vastly different from the time of the Boxer Rebellion, and Yuan would certainly not involve himself personally. He immediately replied, "Mr. Minister, China has been in chaos for a long time; what is needed most now is peace. Who proposed it first is not important; what matters is that it benefits China."

The German Minister did not wish to bicker with Yuan. The foreign legations generally viewed the People's Party as a radical faction within Beiyang, and the People's Party's high-profile promotion of the "quota trade agreement" further confirmed this judgment. Regardless of how Yuan Shikai viewed the People's Party, in the eyes of the foreign legations, the two sides were aligned in their attempt to stabilize the situation in China. Geopolitical scheming was no less common in Europe than in China. The People's Party's efforts to strive for its own interests seemed a perfectly normal move to the foreign diplomats.

"Your Excellency, we in Germany have our own interests in Shandong. These are guaranteed by treaty. Currently, our interests in southern Shandong have been harmed. What are Your Excellency's views on this?"

*So it's this matter!* Yuan Shikai thought. Germany had always sought to turn the entire province of Shandong into a German sphere of influence. They had forced their way into Jiaozhou Bay and occupied Qingdao, finally gaining a foothold in China. But since then, German progress in Shandong had been negligible. German influence had never been able to penetrate southern Shandong, and in terms of trade, German goods in the region didn't even sell as well as American products.

Hearing the German Minister talk at length about "interests in southern Shandong," Yuan Shikai found it quite laughable.

"Mr. Minister, regarding the issue of southern Shandong, we have been in negotiations with the People's Party. You might as well wait for the results of our negotiations," Yuan Shikai smiled. "However, if Your Excellency wishes to negotiate with the People's Party individually, the Central Government has no way to prevent you from doing so."

What the German Minister really wanted to hear was Yuan Shikai's attitude. Before coming to see Yuan, he had already discussed the Shandong issue with Britain and France. The British fleet had its own base in Weihai; the fact that Germany could not expand further after occupying Qingdao was largely due to British obstruction.

The British were doing great business with the People's Party, and import-export trade between the two was booming. Not only the British, but even the Americans were making a killing in the People's Party base areas. Compared to these two nations, German trade had been severely impacted.

Moreover, the Germans, high and low, did not like the People's Party. "Those in the same trade are enemies." The People's Party Chairman, Chen Ke, was something of a chemist. After the synthetic ammonia technology he developed was partnered with the Americans, American synthetic ammonia products flooded into Europe like a tide. Germany's chemical industry was a prominent rising star in Europe, and encountering a major variable like Chen Ke in heavy chemicals was an unpleasant surprise.

This was not the worst of it. In the large-scale industrial production of soda ash, Europe had formed the "Solvay Syndicate," which monopolized industrial soda ash technology—an extremely lucrative business. After the People's Party purchased over twenty sets of equipment from their American joint venture, they also began selling soda ash on a large scale. This showed that the People's Party had mastered the technology for producing soda ash.

The Solvay Syndicate system was facing a powerful external challenge. Worse still, when the Syndicate came to ask Chen Ke why he was "stealing another country's patent," Chen Ke performed a comparison between the Solvay production process and the People's Party's process. The new process ideas left the Solvay representatives speechless.

Everyone involved was an expert; Chen Ke's production process was indeed feasible. This was no longer a case of "stealing a patent." Of course, that wasn't the core of the problem. The core was that the Solvay Syndicate relied on technical monopoly to secure exorbitant profits. If Chen Ke, as he had done with the Salvarsan (606) formula years ago, were to make this new production process public, the Solvay Syndicate would collapse immediately.

If Chen Ke were merely a scientist, the Solvay Syndicate would have many ways to deal with him—hiring him at a high salary, placing him under house arrest, or, in the extreme, eliminating him. Any of these could solve the problem. In commercial competition, it was all too common for European and American firms to kill each other's key technical personnel. Killing a Chinese man would be even easier.

The problem was that Chen Ke was not just a scientist; he was the leader of a political entity with an army. Even if they killed Chen Ke, the production process would remain in the hands of the People's Party. If the Solvay Syndicate wanted to continue monopolizing synthetic ammonia technology, they would have to completely eradicate the People's Party. That was a far more difficult proposition.

The German Minister had received multiple inquiries from Germany: "What exactly is the attitude of the People's Party?" Not only Germany but the entire Solvay Syndicate was extremely anxious. The news brought by the British was that the People's Party demanded a monopoly over the entire Asian market. If this demand had come from a European nation or the United States, the Solvay Syndicate might have agreed long ago. The problem was that this demand came from a Chinese "warlord." And this "warlord" didn't even have a navy yet sought to monopolize the Asian market; the Solvay Syndicate had no intention of yielding to the People's Party's "blackmail."

The smooth-sailing People's Party had to be taught a lesson. If they were allowed to continue developing this way, heaven knew what else they would come up with. Chemistry was like a sheet of window paper; once it was poked through, it was truly pierced. On the existing foundation, as long as there was investment in research and development, there would be corresponding returns. The Germans knew better than anyone the significance of government support for the chemical industry. Germany's chemical industry had taken flight during Chancellor Bismarck's era with vigorous support and the resources of the Ruhr coal mines. If the leader of a government was himself a chemist, the results would be even more terrifying.

The British and French had no intention of eradicating the People's Party. However, they were ambiguous toward the German proposal to teach them a lesson. In China, whether it was the Central Government or local governments, they were all weak in the eyes of Europe and America. There was no need for full-scale war; as long as pressure could be applied in certain areas, or even slight military action taken, the government would compromise. The Germans understood well that as long as there was "no ceding of land and no payment of indemnities," the Chinese government would view it as a genuine victory. In terms of commercial interests, these Chinese government officials were not even opposed to cooperation; it was a good opportunity for them to make a killing.

The German Minister's calculation was shrewd. Using the pretext of pressuring the People's Party, he implicitly aimed to completely secure German interests in Shandong. Seizing Shandong directly was out of the question—firstly, the British would never agree, and secondly, the new President of the Republic, Yuan Shikai, would not agree either. However, Germany could strike the People's Party under the banner of "striving for the interests of all nations." Once the People's Party was forced to make concessions, the other European and American powers could use the opportunity to "follow suit."

Therefore, the German Minister repeatedly assured the British that Germany was not seeking to turn southern Shandong into a German colony, but rather aimed to force the People's Party to recognize the agreements between the powers and the Manchu Qing government. The British side responded with a very subtle "it is understandable" attitude.

Having secured the British acquiescence, the German Minister wanted to see Yuan Shikai's stance. And Yuan's attitude gave the Minister the feeling that he, too, "acquiesced." But such things could not be settled by talk alone.

"Your Excellency, we have had much cooperation in Shandong in the past. Our side has always greatly appreciated the support you gave us then. Regarding our dispute with the People's Party, we hope to continue to receive your support," the German Minister said almost nakedly.

How could Yuan Shikai fall for that trap? He replied casually, "We are not clear on the dispute between the German side and the People's Party; more investigation is needed. We stand on a neutral position and still hope for peace."

Hearing this, the German Minister understood Yuan Shikai's meaning. During the Russo-Japanese War, Japan and Russia had fought bitterly in China's Northeast. The Manchu Qing government had declared it would "maintain neutrality." What Yuan Shikai said now was identical to what the Qing government had said then. This was Yuan Shikai indicating that he would stand by and absolutely not support either side. Of course, this was a completely acquiescent attitude; if the German Minister insisted on forcing Yuan to take a public stand, Yuan would only openly oppose it verbally while taking no actual action.

However, this could not be interpreted as goodwill on Yuan Shikai's part. Such verbal declarations in practice also meant he would trip them up from behind. The German Minister was quite worried the British would do just that. As the masters of "balancing the European situation" for over a century, the British were adept at such minor maneuvers.

As for what Yuan Shikai would do behind the scenes, the German Minister didn't care at all. All foreign legations believed that no matter what the Chinese did, they would not dare to offend the European and American powers—this was a fact proven many, many times by history.