At noon on July 7, 1911, the People's Party issued an extremely rare circular telegram to the entire nation: "In the early hours of July 7, the German Pacific Fleet shelled Lianyungang. Under the cover of naval guns, German Marines invaded the city. Central China is in crisis. The People's Party units defending Lianyungang rose in counterattack simultaneously with the German invasion. The Germans seek to repeat their previous seizure of Jiaozhou Bay. Due to the current relationship between the People's Party and the other provinces of China, the People's Party requests no support from the provinces, nor does it ask for donations. However, if any other political force supports the Germans in this war of anti-aggression, the People's Party, after achieving victory in this sacred war of national defense, will certainly deliver severe strikes against such traitors."

Most provinces were unaware of the friction between the People's Party and the Germans; even those who had heard rumors from Beijing viewed the matter as a joke. The People's Party was an even more dangerous existence than Beiyang, a fact known to all provincial rulers. Although the People's Party shouted slogans of "no support and no money" in the face of the German offensive, the subsequent line about "severely punishing traitors" after the war inevitably reminded the provinces of the People's Party's earlier circular: "Whoever protects the Emperor, the People's Party will eliminate."

Facing this telegram, every province felt an indescribable flavor. Logically, whether the People's Party could preserve itself against a foreign attack was a major question. Yet judging by this telegram, the People's Party appeared to be handling things with ease. This was far from a normal situation. Due to the fog of intelligence, the provinces were in a state of profound confusion. Consequently, spies from all directions hurried toward Lianyungang, the supposed battlefield, hoping to obtain accurate news.

The Beiyang government, however, faced no such fog. They had already confirmed that, as the People's Party claimed, the German Pacific Fleet had indeed shelled Lianyungang and landed troops. Furthermore, in addition to the circular telegram, the People's Party had sent a specific telegram to Beiyang and delivered a letter from Chen Ke to Yuan Shikai through their delegation in Beijing.

The contents of the letter were astonishing. Chen Ke stated that, based on the wartime situation, the People's Party intended to attack Qingdao. Therefore, he was notifying Yuan Shikai in advance, hoping that when the People's Party marched on Qingdao, it would not lead to any misunderstandings between the two sides.

Chen Ke was worried about being misunderstood? Yuan Shikai was speechless at the thought. After dismissing the young members of the People's Party delegation, Yuan sent for Xu Shichang, Wang Shizhen, and Duan Qirui. All three understood Yuan's intention. After taking turns reading Chen Ke's letter, Xu Shichang spoke first. "President, the People's Party intends to win prestige this time. I am not well-versed in military matters, but I wonder if they can achieve victory."

Yuan Shikai turned toward Duan Qirui. "Zhiquan, what do you think?"

Duan Qirui already had his thoughts ready and replied immediately, "The People's Party's strength lies in their numbers. Even if they fight in Lianyungang and Qingdao simultaneously, they won't face a shortage of troops. However, the German fortress at Qingdao is extremely well-fortified."

As he spoke, Duan Qirui produced a map of the German Qingdao Fortress. The German Emperor's vision for Qingdao was first as a naval port and second as a commercial port; thus, a large number of military facilities collectively known as the "Qingdao Fortress" had been built. In addition to existing permanent batteries, the German garrison had constructed a new defensive line stretching from Fushan Bay roughly along what are now Yan'an 3rd Road and Zhenjiang Road, and then along the Haibo River to Jiaozhou Bay. This line included both old and newly built batteries, all interconnected by open trenches and tunnels.

Beiyang had paid close attention to the layout of the Qingdao Fortress and possessed a general understanding of its artillery groups.

Taixizhen Battery: four 21cm cannons.

Tuandao Battery: three 8.8cm cannons.

Yamen Mountain (now Xiaoyushan) Battery: three 15cm cannons.

Huiqian Cape (now Huiquanjiao) Battery: two 24cm cannons with turrets, three 15cm cannons with turrets.

Fengtailing (Mount Moltke, now Shuishishan) Battery: three 8.8cm cannons.

Bismarck Mountain (now Qingdao Mountain): South Battery with four 28cm howitzers, North Battery with two 21cm cannons.

...

...

A long list of data followed, totaling the various cannons scattered across the fortress.

Even Xu Shichang, who claimed to "not understand military matters," had been a key figure during the Xiaozhan training era. Firstly, he enjoyed Yuan Shikai's high trust and respect, with Yuan treating him as an older brother and following his advice. Secondly, as a member of the Hanlin Academy, he was respected by the generals, who addressed him as "Teacher." Thirdly, he was diligent, having taught himself military science and English and authored thirteen volumes of military manuals including *A Record of New Army Strategies* and *Detailed Illustrations of Drill Methods*, using new traditions to coordinate training and education for the entire army. His achievements were remarkable and his prestige high, establishing his position in the Beiyang Army second only to Yuan Shikai and achieving his goal of "using letters to master the martial and military merit to advance."

Listening to Duan Qirui's description of a modern fortress equipped with over a hundred cannons of various calibers and rates of fire, Xu Shichang exhaled softly. This fortress was indeed impregnable. As long as ammunition supplies were secured, the Qingdao Fortress was truly unconquerable.

During the Russo-Japanese War, the Japanese suffered over fifty thousand casualties while attacking the Port Arthur (Lushun) Fortress and still failed to take it. The Germans' Qingdao Fortress was even better prepared. Although the People's Party had achieved victory after victory domestically, there was no word of them possessing any large-scale artillery. If they intended to take the Qingdao Fortress by force, it was likely impossible.

After finishing his briefing on the fortress, Duan Qirui sneered. "When Chen Ke met with the German Minister, he told him that in his hometown, there's a saying for something that can't be done: 'Wash up and go to sleep'—keep dreaming. When the Minister demanded the People's Party recognize the old treaties, Chen Ke said, 'No need to wash, just go straight to sleep.' I suspect Chen Ke's attempt to face the Qingdao Fortress will be the real case of 'no need to wash, just go straight to sleep.' When he said those words, he likely never imagined the Minister would use the insult as a pretext for war."

This was the first time Xu Shichang had heard this, and he never expected Chen Ke would say such things in a formal diplomatic setting. Yet seeing the mockery on Yuan Shikai's face and the disdain on Wang Shizhen's, Xu finally believed that the seemingly rational Chen Ke could also act like a fool.

However, perhaps because Xu Shichang had never dealt with the People's Party and never suffered at their hands, he felt a faint sense of unease. Chen Ke might act like a fool occasionally, but Xu did not believe he was a reckless man. Given Chen's rudeness to the German Minister and his rapid military response, his attitude was remarkably consistent.

Thinking of this, Xu Shichang's expression grew solemn.

Yuan Shikai, being very familiar with Xu, immediately asked, "Juren, what is it?"

Xu Shichang replied, "President, although the German Minister's move against the People's Party was pre-planned, Chen Ke's consistent attitude was surely no accident, either."

Those present were all capable men; upon Xu's reminder, they immediately understood what he meant. Duan Qirui said in surprise, "Mr. Juren, you mean Chen Ke *wanted* to fight the Germans all along and deliberately provoked the Minister?"

Xu Shichang couldn't be entirely certain, so he explained from another angle: "Although Germany has a hard-line attitude, they have no support in Asia outside of Qingdao. Russia is relatively friendly with Germany, but after the Russo-Japanese War, they are temporarily unable to move south. Japan is Britain's ally, as is France, and the Netherlands follows Britain's lead. Thus, Germany is currently isolated."

Yuan Shikai found these words familiar; upon reflection, he realized they were the very words Chen Ke had spoken to him during his visit. At this, even Yuan Shikai's expression changed. The German Minister used Chen Ke's rudeness as a pretext for war—a war the Germans had already prepared for. They needed a reason. If Chen Ke had also wanted this war all along, then deliberately giving the Minister a pretext to start the war made sense. This explanation was logically sound.

Having reached this conclusion, Yuan Shikai understood why Chen Ke hadn't chosen to declare war himself. Chen Ke still wanted to negotiate a trade package with the British. Actively moving against Germany would only invite a joint strike from all nations. But if Germany acted alone, the other European and American powers would temporarily refrain from military action against the People's Party.

"But Chen Ke still has to be able to take the Qingdao Fortress," Duan Qirui, also a perceptive man, had thought through the issue further. "If the People's Party can't take the fortress, they can only rely on a siege. The other powers would never give Chen Ke such an opportunity; they would certainly pressure him from behind until he was forced to withdraw."

"And if Chen Ke *can* truly take the Qingdao Fortress?" Xu Shichang, who was addressed as "Teacher" by the generals because of his Hanlin background, possessed enough presence to challenge Duan Qirui.

Duan Qirui was stumped by the question. Indeed—if the People's Party truly could take the Qingdao Fortress... Duan remembered when he and Wang Shizhen had been surrounded by the People's Party in Huaiyuan County. The People's Party had broken through the city with formidable siege capabilities, and the Beiyang 3rd Division and Jiangbei New Army had been annihilated.

"If the People's Party truly can take the Qingdao Fortress, then we in Beiyang can 'wash up and go to sleep.' Oh, wait—no need to wash, just go straight to sleep," Yuan Shikai laughed loudly.

These words were so abrupt that the other three were startled. They first looked at the laughing Yuan Shikai and then at each other, not knowing how to interpret his meaning.

Yuan stopped laughing. "If the Qingdao Fortress can be taken, what is there that the People's Party cannot conquer? Looking across the whole of China, is there any place better fortified than the Qingdao Fortress?"

"Xiangcheng..." Xu Shichang was frightened by the thought.

Yuan Shikai stood and lightly patted Xu's shoulder. "Brother Juren, I meant nothing else. You know I despise those who obsess over a single phrase as if one word could decide success or failure. The People's Party is going to attack the fortress; anything we say beforehand is useless."

"President, if you think the People's Party can take the fortress, we absolutely cannot let them have it so easily," Duan Qirui said hurriedly.

Yuan Shikai shook his head slightly. "No. We shall clear the path for them to fight. When Chen Ke left Beijing, several thousand of his men covered four hundred li in four days. If we wanted to block the People's Party, would Chen Ke not have anticipated that?"

Hearing this, Duan Qirui fell silent. If Chen Ke had indeed calculated for the Germans, he must have calculated for Beiyang as well. Recalling the People's Party's circular telegram: "If any other political force supports the Germans... the People's Party... will certainly deliver severe strikes against such traitors."

Duan Qirui understood the meaning now. If the People's Party lost, there was nothing to say. But if they won, they would use the prestige of a great victory to strike whoever they pleased. Beiyang had already lost to the People's Party, and the defeated generals were Duan Qirui and Wang Shizhen. If Beiyang lost again, the central government would be at its end.

"Pinqing, this is a matter of war. Send a telegram to Chen Ke in the name of the Ministry of the Army. Our Beiyang garrison will absolutely not leave their barracks while the People's Party attacks Qingdao," Yuan Shikai ordered Wang Shizhen.