Chapter 21: Prelude (Part 1)
Volume 5: Heading Toward · Chapter 21
Wang Bin, as the People's Party's commercial representative in the United States, had been incredibly busy these days. Every day before bed, he had to read the day's list and meeting minutes three or four times to recall exactly what he had done during the day. Then he had to read the next day's work list three times, organize it in his mind, and roughly understand what he was going to do. After getting up the next day, he would immediately get busy non-stop according to the list.
The attitude of the American side was very firm. Since reaching a verbal agreement with the People's Party, they really had not imported raw silk from Japan anymore, and the raw silk trade between the People's Party and the United States immediately stepped up to a whole new level. In September 1913, the People's Party traded 150,000 quintals of raw silk with the United States, which was 300,000 dan, or 300 million jin. The total value exceeded 300 million Haikwan taels. Roughly equivalent to 200 million US dollars. Although such a huge sum of money was not paid all at once, but spent in installments. However, with such a large volume of equipment procurement, the contracts could definitely not be negotiated in a short while.
Such booming trade made Wang Bin feel a sense of pride, but also a sense of unease. Whether they were American businessmen or officials, they all asked Wang Bin more than once, directly or implicitly: Does China have the ability to use all this equipment? Will there be a problem of overcapacity like in the United States?
Wang Bin would politely listen to these people, and then frankly admit according to the pre-arranged response that the People's Party was not considering this issue for the time being, and would deal with it when it encountered it later. Although he could say this with his mouth, Wang Bin was actually not very assured in his heart. However, he had at least witnessed the strength of German and American industry with his own eyes, and had also witnessed the backwardness of China in the Manchu Qing era. Having devoted himself to the industrial system built by the People's Party in the past few years, Wang Bin firmly believed that as long as there was the People's Party led by Chen Ke, there were no problems that could not be overcome.
The personnel of the People's Party's North American Commerce Office were divided into two categories. One category was the technical personnel from the Base Area. They were mainly technical personnel transferred from various industrial sectors of the National Defense Science and Technology Commission, sent to the United States to be responsible for technical work. These frontline technical personnel came here, firstly to conduct field inspections of American industry, and secondly to make relatively reliable suggestions on procurement based on the technical problems actually encountered by the People's Party.
The other part was commercial negotiators. Although it was an economic crisis, it did not mean that commercial negotiations could adopt the attitude of "money is king". The People's Party had military power in China, but not in the United States. Appropriate business strategies were still necessary. At least these American companies had to make money. If the Yankees lost money, they would definitely try every means to make things difficult for the People's Party's US Commerce Office. Moreover, commercial negotiators also played the role of an intelligence collection station. In business negotiations, everyone would always chat, and there would be intelligence exchange in the chat. This was also inevitable.
By the end of September, more and more news was gathered through various channels, and the North American Intelligence Station reached two conclusions. Britain and Japan had begun to prepare to fully support Yuan Shikai of the Beiyang clique, while the US government was still arguing endlessly about lending to the People's Party.
Regarding the Anglo-Japanese support for Yuan Shikai, Chen Ke had made a prediction as early as when the intentional loan agreement was reached with the United States. Especially after the United States began to deliberately make things difficult for Japan, this was no longer surprising. Half of Japan's exports relied on raw silk, and the United States was Japan's largest export destination. Relying on its connections in Southeast Asia, the People's Party was ruthlessly encroaching on Japan's market in Southeast Asia. In the Chinese market, the People's Party's goods were invincible, gradually squeezing Japanese goods out of the Chinese market. With the combination of several effects, it would be the strangest thing if Japan supported the People's Party.
Wang Bin just couldn't quite figure out whether the United States was doing this to deliberately provoke Sino-Japanese conflicts? Or was it merely out of resentment towards Britain, so it habitually struck at Japan, Britain's follower in Asia?
But these were not very important. The slogan of the People's Party was "Self-reliance and ample food and clothing". It is better to rely on oneself than on others. At a time when the People's Party was doing its utmost to establish China's industrial system, China's path had been set: either get rid of foreign oppression as an industrial country, or never be able to stand up as an agricultural country. No matter what tricks the Americans played now, the People's Party could do nothing about the United States. Instead of thinking wildly all day long, it was better to pretend not to see it; out of sight, out of mind.
Therefore, Wang Bin completely ignored the US government's loan debate. In the current economic crisis, it was not easy for the United States to find a large market like the People's Party Base Area. Even without loans from the US government, a large number of American companies on the verge of bankruptcy were begging Wang Bin to sell their goods. Given the current total trade volume between the Base Area and the United States, especially the miserable state of the American machinery manufacturing industry, the procurement team led by Wang Bin could already overfill their acquisition tasks.
Moreover, some businessmen who very much hoped that the US government would reach a loan agreement with the People's Party privately revealed some "inside information" to Wang Bin. Some US congressmen were worried that after Britain and Japan fully supported Yuan Shikai, a civil war would break out in China. If the People's Party failed, the US investment in the People's Party would probably be wasted. With the current naval power of the United States, it was simply impossible to cross the Pacific Ocean to challenge Britain's hegemonic position in East Asia.
Wang Bin knew that these merchants were hinting that he should try to lobby US congressmen. When encountering these "kind reminders", Wang Bin just smiled indifferently, but did not continue the conversation at all. Wang Bin did not think it was necessary to spend the People's Party's hard-earned money on bribing US politicians. Technical personnel newly arrived from the Base Area brought the latest intelligence from the Base Area. Due to relatively weak infrastructure, and a shortage of technical personnel and workers, the rapidly expanding industrial production in the Base Area was encountering significant problems. Accidents occurred in factories every few days. From power supply to production safety, the number of injuries and deaths was almost catching up with the human losses caused by war. Safety production education in factories was conducted almost every half month, and gruesome pictures of injuries and deaths were densely posted on the "Safety Production Education Board". The scale of the entire industrial system had expanded a lot, but the overall efficiency had not improved. Regardless of how great the sales pressure was in the United States, at least the demand in the Base Area was not so robust. So dragging it out was no big deal.
But in October, Samuel Bush, the American representative who had been responsible for negotiating with Chen Ke, came to see Wang Bin. Since the People's Party did not have an official liaison agency in the United States, the People's Party North American Commerce Office assumed the function of the official representative in the United States.
"Mr. Wang, if this loan agreement is passed, I wonder how much loan the People's Party intends to apply for from the United States?" Samuel Bush asked Wang Bin this question.
Wang Bin felt slightly surprised. Originally, the two sides had reached an agreement that the United States would provide a loan of about 200 million to the People's Party. This amount of money was actually not too much. Now the exchange rate of the British pound to the US dollar was 1:5, so a loan of 200 million US dollars was only 40 million pounds. Even at the originally stated upper limit of 400 million US dollars, it was only a quota of 80 million pounds. If the People's Party truly turned to the British side, not to mention 80 million pounds, based on the current total trade volume of the People's Party, borrowing 100 million pounds would not be difficult.
Since it was already so, Wang Bin did not answer the question directly. "Wasn't there a corresponding verbal agreement before? Is there a problem with the original quota?"
"There is no problem with the original quota. Since an agreement was reached, judging from the current trade situation, fulfilling the previous agreement is no problem at all. What I want to ask this time is what attitude the People's Party actually holds towards Britain." Samuel Bush went straight to the point.
Wang Bin smiled. As the North American representative of the People's Party, his stance on such issues was quite firm. He just didn't expect to have the opportunity to clarify his stance until now. A strange emotion arose in Wang Bin's heart. "Mr. Bush, our Chairman Chen of the People's Party wrote a song called 'My Motherland'. There is a line in the lyrics that can represent our attitude. 'If friends come, there is good wine. If the jackal comes, what awaits it is the shotgun.' Our People's Party will definitely adhere to the principle of China's national interests above all else. In terms of attitude towards the British, we are consistent."
"Can you be more detailed?" Samuel Bush was obviously not the sentimental type. He continued to ask very rigorously.
"Our People's Party believes that in today's world, closing the country to the outside world is outdated. Therefore, we welcome any behavior willing to conduct normal trade with us. But this does not mean that we accept other countries stationing troops in China and possessing many privileges in China. This is our attitude towards Britain." Wang Bin replied.
The meaning in these words was already very clear. The People's Party not only opposed Britain stationing troops in China and possessing privileges in China, but Wang Bin's words actually declared that China opposed any country's interference in China's sovereignty. Samuel Bush certainly understood the meaning inside these words. Although the United States also had troops stationed in China, he still nodded. "Then how does your side prepare to practice this foreign concept of yours?"
"Rich country, strong army." Wang Bin gave the answer.
This reply obviously made Samuel Bush quite satisfied. After talking with Wang Bin on some key issues, Samuel Bush put forward "suggestions" regarding the loan.
Different from the original loan quota of 100 million, 200 million, or even 400 million, in the new vision of the American side, the upper limit of the loan quota reached 400 million US dollars. Using silk and tea trade as collateral, the annual interest rate for each term of the loan was 5%, fully paid at 100%, and paid off in five years. But as a collateral deposit, the People's Party needed to first deposit gold worth 80 million US dollars in an American bank as collateral.
Hearing the condition of depositing gold as collateral first, a sneer couldn't help but appear on Wang Bin's face, but he did not interrupt Samuel Bush.
Samuel Bush naturally wouldn't fail to see this smile, but he continued to introduce the American conditions as if he hadn't seen it. The United States was willing to support the People's Party in military construction, including the army and navy. Arsenals, shipyards, the United States could support the People's Party with complete sets.
Wang Bin's expression had become serious. The meaning contained in such a statement was quite profound. The United States was willing to help the People's Party strengthen its military construction. This was not just as simple as selling equipment and technology to the People's Party. The People's Party's attitude of pursuing China's national independence was already very clear. The United States knew the People's Party's attitude but was still willing to support the People's Party, which meant that the United States was willing to accept the People's Party's attitude.
"I will transmit this intelligence back to the country." At the end of the meeting, Wang Bin gave Samuel Bush an answer.
A simple telegram was sent to the country, and more detailed content was also put on a cruise ship, heading towards the Base Area. Thanks to the increasingly prosperous trade, there were more and more ships from the West Coast of the United States to the Base Area. And the intelligence personnel of the North American Trade Office were analyzing the latest intelligence.
"The Yankees are planning to let us pull their chestnuts out of the fire? Anyway, they have always been very enthusiastic about striking at the British."
"Looking at the Yankees' plan, they are preparing to let us help them hold back the British."
Conspiracy theories are a unique tendency of people who have a little insight but no real great insight. Even within the People's Party, it was impossible to be immune to this. Comrades had already begun to guess the Americans' actions from the perspective of conspiracy theories without a teacher.
Wang Bin waved his hand to interrupt this speculation. "Now China's population is four times that of the United States. If our per capita industrial production capacity is the same as the United States, our total industrial value will be four times that of the United States. Even if the per capita industrial capacity is only half of the United States, our total value will be twice that of the United States. Our industrial capacity is twice that of the United States, so whatever conspiracy the United States engages in will be in vain. Therefore, this kind of speculation is meaningless. No matter what the conspiracy is, the result can only be seen when we fight with real swords and guns."
While speaking, Wang Bin noted down all these comrades in his heart. The personnel turnover of the People's Party's North American Commerce Office was fast, and Wang Bin prepared to send them back to China in the next batch. For a unit like the Commerce Office, stupidity was not feared, but petty cleverness was feared. One of the characteristics of petty cleverness was enthusiasm for conspiracy theories. If one only thought about speculation and trickery, the result would be completely forgetting the proper business.
"Then we just wait for domestic orders?" A comrade who didn't engage much in petty cleverness was a bit worried about this.
Wang Bin added the comrades with such concerns to the return list in his heart. The People's Party sent comrades halfway across the globe not to let comrades wait foolishly for orders. Everyone's job was to engage in trade. Before the domestic orders arrived, there must absolutely be no wavering in the job.
After settling the internal accounts, Wang Bin said: "Comrades, Chairman Chen likes to say on foreign issues that even if Butcher Zhang dies, we won't eat pork with hair. Our current trade volume is already enough to buy endless equipment. Whether Americans lend money or not has limited impact on us. What we have to do is to do a good job in trade. Research what industrial and agricultural products the United States needs besides raw silk and tea. What technical equipment our Base Area needs. This is trade, exchanging what one has for what one needs, and complementing each other's advantages."
Faced with such a candid statement, the comrades all expressed their agreement. And the domestic notification arrived very quickly, "Except that the gold collateral must be zero risk, everything else can be signed with the United States. Step up the purchase of production technology and equipment for high-temperature and high-pressure equipment."
Receiving this order, Wang Bin felt confident. Before he came to the United States this time, Chen Ke emphasized the current key point: improving core technologies. "The synthetic ammonia industry is one of the most important pillars of China in the next hundred years. Basic chemical fertilizers rely on nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer can rely on mining, but nitrogen fertilizer can only rely on synthetic ammonia. Moreover, Comrade Wang Bin, you studied electrical engineering, so you should also know about the three acids and two bases in industry. Synthetic ammonia technology directly solves one acid and two bases, and is our most important chemical foundation. In this regard, being able to produce these products as soon as possible plays a key role in our country's industrial capability."
The People's Party's scientific and technological research and development adopted the "technology tree" expression mode, which arranged known disciplines in a tree-like pattern. For example, steel smelting, the required steps from mining to furnace building to steel rolling were clearly listed. Technical personnel had ideas for tackling key technical problems, and procurement personnel like Wang Bin could also conduct targeted procurement and recruit talents. At least until now, Wang Bin's work had not been criticized in any way. While Wang Bin felt a little guilty in his heart, he also felt that his work was basically on the right track.
After receiving domestic instructions, Wang Bin negotiated with Samuel Bush as a plenipotentiary representative. Regarding gold collateral, Wang Bin naturally would not directly object. He asked a question, "Mr. Bush, American banks can go bankrupt. Once a bankruptcy problem occurs, all funds and collateral under the depositor's account cannot be retrieved. I do not doubt the goodwill of the American side, but how can I guarantee to the country that our pre-stored gold will not suffer losses?"
"We will designate the most creditworthy banks. Mr. Wang can have sufficient trust in these banks." Samuel Bush persuaded.
Hearing this, Wang Bin smiled. "Let's not talk about trust, which hurts feelings, when doing business. Trust is never reliable. I must get more reliable guarantees. If it is not zero risk, our side cannot accept the condition of pre-storing gold."
Samuel Bush was slightly moved. "Does your side require the pre-stored gold to be zero risk?"
Wang Bin replied categorically: "That's right. We just require that our pre-stored gold be zero risk and not be affected by any bank failures or financial fluctuations."
Samuel Bush asked: "Then can you tell me your side's idea?"
"Since this batch of gold is used as a deposit, we didn't expect to take it back to China. Since we sincerely hope that the cooperation between the two sides can be maintained for a long time, Mr. Bush has to propose a solution that complies with US law." Wang Bin also told the truth.
Samuel Bush nodded. Since Wang Bin had revealed his bottom line, he had corresponding ideas.
The final solution was to hand over this gold to the Federal Reserve for management. Since the Federal Reserve was responsible for the monetary policy of the United States, it was logical for the Federal Reserve to manage this gold and use this gold to mortgage corresponding US dollars. After solving this problem, the subsequent agreement became quite smooth, even smoother than originally envisaged.
The Federal Reserve held the power of issuing US dollars. Since the United States was willing to support the People's Party in this regard, the rest depended on how many US dollars the Federal Reserve was willing to mortgage with the gold deposited by the People's Party in the Federal Reserve. As long as there was a policy, how much account funds the Federal Reserve approved was just printing symbols in a few small books.
Just the release of this news caused the stocks of American machinery manufacturing industries, especially heavy industry manufacturing companies, to rise to varying degrees. In the current economic crisis, there were too few buyers who could come up with so many US dollars to buy mechanical equipment on a large scale. With the People's Party as a big buyer, American machinery production enterprises felt that they saw the dawn.
However, not long after this news spread, Sir Humphrey of Britain went to Wuhan again to visit Chen Ke. Sir Humphrey came this time not with a threatening attitude, but with a naked threat statement. He seriously analyzed the Beiyang government's dissatisfaction and hostility towards the People's Party to Chen Ke, and mentioned again the fact that Beiyang was preparing to borrow from Britain. Sir Humphrey emphasized that in order to maintain the current situation in China, the People's Party could not break the balance by borrowing from the United States.
At this time, the Second Balkan War had ended. Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire signed the "Treaty of Istanbul", and the Balkan League, which had once united to strike the Ottoman Turkey, completely split. although Britain and Germany tried their best to avoid direct conflict, Britain, Germany, Austria, Russia, France, and Italy all had their own major interests in the Balkans, the "powder keg of Europe". After the Second Balkan War, the contradictions between the two major European blocs became more intensified. Germany and France were sworn enemies, and avoiding direct conflict between Britain and Germany had already exhausted the patience of the two countries. The Balkans, which did not border either country, became the venue for the wrestling between the two countries.
Since World War I was inevitable, Chen Ke's reply to Sir Humphrey was much simpler. "On Chinese soil, it is the People's Party's right to decide who to borrow money from. You British have no right to interfere."
Such a tough reply clearly demonstrated the People's Party's attitude to Sir Humphrey. Facing such a stubborn Chen Ke, Sir Humphrey gave up the effort to continue persuading. After returning to Beijing on October 20, he immediately presided over the agreement for the second Reorganization Loan with Beiyang. Given that the first Reorganization Loan had been spent cleanly by Yuan Shikai, the second Reorganization Loan provided the Beiyang clique with 100 million pounds of funds on more favorable terms. Given that China was a silver standard currency, the British side very considerately provided Yuan Shikai with a huge amount of silver and several sets of minting equipment.
With this considerate fund, Yuan Shikai began to mint silver dollars with his own head portrait as legal tender in large quantities. Chen Ke never expected that in this space-time where he appeared, the "Yuan Datou" (Yuan Big Head) was released in this way. The British minting equipment was really good. The silver alloy ratio was very good. The silver dollars were thick and bright, and rang when blown. Chen Ke himself couldn't help exchanging his salary for a few Yuan Datou as gifts for his daughter.
After the first Reorganization Loan, the Beiyang clique continued its military expansion plan. With the second Reorganization Loan, British weapons began to be shipped into China in large quantities. Because Japan's foreign trade was greatly impacted by the People's Party, in order to take care of its little brother, Britain also handed over part of the arms orders to Japan. The Beiyang Army was rapidly armed, mainly with British and Japanese equipment.
On the People's Party side, Chen Ke issued an order to extend the service period. At the same time, Chen Ke appointed Zhang Yu as the Secretary of the Henan Provincial Committee to officially take charge of the work in Henan. Driven by foreign powers, the conflict between the People's Party and Beiyang finally reached the stage of all-out war.