In the living room of Katsura Taro's residence in Tokyo, a meeting of the key generals of the Army Ministry was underway. Katsura Taro had even hung a large map of China in the room. The red territory of the People's Party and the blue territory of the Beiyang government were marked very conspicuously.

The attendees included Katsura Taro, the Minister of the Army, and many representatives who held real power in the military. Commanders and Chiefs of Staff of the First-class Divisions (Type A), as well as representatives from other divisions, were all present. Except for Katsura Taro, who wore a kimono, all other attendees were dressed in the black uniforms of the Imperial Japanese Army.

In peacetime, it was the Navy's warships that could display Japan's national power. Currently, the Takahashi Korekiyo cabinet was pro-Navy. Japan's current policy was not to intervene in the Chinese Civil War but to focus on making a fortune through the opportunity provided by the European War. The Army's request to expand by two divisions naturally could not be passed, and the entire Army Ministry stood in the position of the "opposition party." However, the struggle between the Army Ministry and the Navy Ministry had a long history, with each taking turns in power. No matter how much the Army Ministry cursed verbally, they could still accept the current political reality in their hearts. The purpose of Katsura Taro calling this meeting was to study the situation in China and prepare for the Army faction to regain power in the future.

The Army Ministry had relatively more intelligence on the Beiyang regime and knew quite a bit about Beiyang's strategic arrangements. purely in terms of numbers, the scale of the Chinese Civil War in 1915 was second only to the European War. And the battlefront was perhaps even longer than that of the European War. The Japanese Army Ministry had suffered losses in the Qingdao Campaign and the Rizhao Campaign. They had inwardly thought that both sides of the Chinese Civil War would put on a surprising performance. Facts proved that both sides in the Chinese Civil War had indeed surprised Japan.

"The Beiyang side has absolutely no decent strategy to speak of. It's a waste that they conscripted two million troops." As a disciple of Yamagata Aritomo, Katsura Taro held a contemptuous surprise toward Beiyang's performance.

"Beiyang could have implemented a pincer attack on the People's Party, but there has been no movement up to now. Although the land routes have been thoroughly cut off by the People's Party, the People's Party has no navy, so Beiyang can still effectively command its troops." Chief of the Imperial Japanese Army General Staff Hasegawa Yoshimichi held a similarly contemptuous attitude toward Beiyang. Controlling a million-strong army but hesitating to advance when facing the enemy—this was a major taboo in military strategy.

"Intelligence on the People's Party is indeed unclear; it's not without reason that Beiyang is unwilling to advance rashly." Vice Chief of the General Staff Uehara Yusaku had his own views. "Up to now, the internal mobilization situation of the People's Party remains unclear, and every time they have fought, they have won. The Beiyang Army doing this is also out of helplessness."

In the Qingdao Campaign, both the Japanese Army and Navy had suffered. The Japanese Navy had to engage in an artillery duel with the People's Party; damage to ships was within expectations. However, the Army lost the Kyushu Division, a loss that absolutely could not be ignored. This was also one of the important reasons for the collapse of the Katsura Taro cabinet. At the mention of this, the expressions of the Army generals turned ugly. Although it could be said that the Japanese Army was careless, the fact that a division was annihilated in a single day was still beyond the imagination of this group of Japanese Army men.

Katsura Taro naturally could not let these people from the Army Ministry remain depressed. He spoke in a clear, loud voice: "If things develop according to the current situation, who do you gentlemen think has the greater chance of winning?"

This group from the Army Ministry actually did not look favorably upon the Beiyang Army, but they all knew in their hearts that if the People's Party were to hold power in China, Japan would have to face a thorny enemy. This would by no means be a blessing for Japan.

"If Beiyang can utilize its advantages, it is still possible to defeat the People's Party," Hasegawa Yoshimichi answered in the manner Japanese people were most skilled at. Such an implicit statement meant he did not look favorably upon Beiyang.

"What exactly are the People's Party's deployments? We actually can't find out any news at all," the Section Chief of the China Section (Section 7) answered with difficulty. He actually hadn't wanted to speak, but the bigwigs in the Army had already pressed him many times, so he simply stated it upfront to save himself the trouble of being questioned later.

Receiving such a result, the Army faction people did not press too excessively. After all, any ideals these people had required them to first regain political power in Japan. After the political tossing and turning of these past few years, the entire Japanese economic situation had become very poor. Takahashi Korekiyo was a great hero in solving Japan's economic problems during the Russo-Japanese War. The reason he could be elected Prime Minister under such terrible economic conditions was that everyone hoped Takahashi Korekiyo could solve Japan's current problems.

Katsura Taro naturally knew the thoughts of the attendees. He gave a cold laugh. "Gentlemen, no one wants to participate in war. I can understand your desire for peace. I just want to give an example. According to the intelligence we have obtained, when the People's Party seized the Hanyang Iron Works in 1908, the steel output was no more than 70,000 tons a year. Currently, it has exceeded 700,000 tons, a tenfold increase in total volume. Meanwhile, our Japan has not exceeded 20,000 tons of steel to this day, and iron production is less than 200,000 tons. It is only double what it was seven years ago. Do you all know why this is?"

Most of those attending this meeting were soldiers, so naturally, they didn't know these detailed economic issues. "Mr. Katsura, why is this?"

Katsura Taro said loudly, "That Takahashi Korekiyo actually did some relevant research. We originally had a 'Coke for Iron Ore' agreement with Hubei. After the People's Party seized Hubei, they immediately terminated this agreement. Gentlemen, the People's Party's steel output is now four times ours. If things continue like this for another seven years, and the People's Party's steel output increases another tenfold to 7 million tons, while we in Japan, even if we grow faster than now, reach 700,000 tons... With the People's Party's steel output ten times ours, what future does our Great Japanese Empire have to speak of?"

Modern armies compete on weapons and firepower, and the amount of steel production directly determines victory or defeat in war. On this point, the generals of the Japanese Army understood the crux of the matter very well. A tenfold difference in steel production between two countries meant a world of difference in war capability.

"Does the People's Party really have the ability to push China to such a level?" an officer couldn't help but ask. China's decline was something Japan had seen with its own eyes; Japan had gradually gained its current status by relying on China's decline. If China could rise again, it meant that all of Japan's efforts to date would turn into bubbles. If Japan hadn't won the First Sino-Japanese War and hadn't achieved a lead over China, Japan wouldn't feel too bad. But the current Japan had tasted the sweetness of leading in Asia, so they were particularly afraid of falling behind China again.

"Gentlemen, although one cannot say Takahashi Korekiyo doesn't understand economics, this person is of no great use. You haven't seen the content of recent trade between China and Japan. It would be one thing if we in Japan were importing machinery and equipment from Britain and the United States, but industrial acids and alkalis are all imported from China. Even the brushes used by the Navy to clean gun barrels are made in China." Katsura Taro was unsparing in his attack on Takahashi Korekiyo, who had thrown in his lot with the Navy. "Some days ago, the Navy was preparing for war and needed a large amount of silk for artillery powder bags. But Japan's production of raw silk and silk fabric had all been sold to Britain, and Edo was actually short of silk. In the end, they relied on importing a batch of cheap silk from China to solve the problem in the market. If Japan continues down this path, the fruits of decades of effort since the Meiji Restoration will inevitably flow away like water."

These Army generals didn't understand other economic issues, but they all knew about the silk issue Katsura Taro raised. High-ranking Japanese officers naturally had to have the style of officers; frequenting drinking establishments with hostesses was part of that style. Everyone had heard many hostesses complain about the difficulty of buying silk. Although the Army's large-caliber artillery also needed silk for powder bags. So when Katsura Taro said this, the officers nodded in agreement one after another.

Seeing that he had finally mobilized everyone's sense of identification through concrete matters, Katsura Taro hurriedly struck while the iron was hot: "Gentlemen, Takahashi Korekiyo seems able to solve Japan's immediate predicament, but it is just struggling to get by. If we blindly follow Takahashi Korekiyo's line of thought, by the time Japan's situation improves, China will have become powerful. If we wait until China's power completely overwhelms Japan, that will be the true unpredictable disaster. Those Navy people can at most fire their cannons to scare China. The First Sino-Japanese War has already proved that to make China surrender, we must rely on our Army. No matter how big the warships are, they can't be driven onto land."

"Correct!" "Katsura-san is right!" The Army officers expressed their agreement one after another. What truly made the Manchu Qing submit was not the Japanese Navy, but the Army, which drove the Qing troops out of Korea with the force of crushing dry weeds and smashing rotten wood, and moreover, the Japanese Army destroyed the Russian army in Northeast China. If they relied only on the Navy, what use would it be?

Katsura Taro pointed at the map and cried out loudly: "Gentlemen, we must now carefully study how the war situation in China will actually develop and determine the Army's strategy. Only then can we make achievements in the future."

...

While the fellows with the Army background were holding their strategic meeting, Takahashi Korekiyo also visited Saionji Kinmochi's residence. Navy officers and tycoons of the financial world attended the Navy Ministry's meeting. As the spokesperson for the Navy, Saionji Kinmochi was not smug. Although Japan's economic situation had improved greatly after Takahashi Korekiyo formed his cabinet, British orders had alleviated Japan's debt repayment pressure, and Japan's once-sluggish exports had recovered. These seemingly good pieces of news might be attractive to people in the financial world, but Saionji Kinmochi would not go so far as to be complacent about this improvement in the situation.

Like Katsura Taro, Saionji Kinmochi also believed that Japan's current crisis was just beginning. It wasn't just the military advantage of the People's Party; China's decades of decline seemingly hinted at a completely new transformation, and this was what made Saionji Kinmochi feel fear.

"Gentlemen, the recent economic situation looks good, but Chinese products are now entering the Japanese market in large quantities. Especially in terms of power, Chinese gas engines have occupied almost the entire share of power sources for small enterprises in Japan. This matter cannot be ignored!" Saionji Kinmochi expressed his worry from another economic parameter.