赤色黎明 (English Translation)

— "The horizon before dawn shall be red as blood"

Chapter 121: V05C121 Collapse (9)

Volume 5: Heading Toward · Chapter 121

Japan's rise in the late 19th century was legendary, with one of the biggest factors being China's decline. Another reason was Japan's active or passive reliance on the world's leading power as a godfather. At least in Chen Ke's era, the United States had stationed troops in Japan for nearly 70 years, and the vast majority of Japanese people lived their entire lives in a Japan with foreign garrisons.

In 1915, after Japan won the Russo-Japanese War, it began attempting to break free from British control. At the very least, the Army Ministry was vigorously trying to shake off dependence on Britain. The Navy Ministry, on the other hand, had deep affection for Britain. After all, Japan's shipbuilding industry still required a massive amount of technical support from Britain.

Although the British godfather was still around, the other element of Japan's rise—China's continued decline—had been interrupted by the extremely unexpected rise of the People's Party. War, the method Japan had repeatedly used against China with success, met with complete failure in Qingdao. And since the People's Party fought Britain without breaking relations, Britain had not yet let Japan take action. Now that the People's Party had made clear its attitude about marching into the Northeast, Japan's upper echelons indeed faced an extremely difficult choice.

It wasn't that Katsura Taro didn't know the difficulties Japan would encounter if it intervened in the Chinese civil war now. But if they didn't intervene now, would the time be right when the People's Party completely occupied the Northeast just as they had occupied Shandong? Katsura Taro obviously didn't think so.

"Even if the timing now isn't good, we still have a chance. Even if we send troops to China, we won't encounter opposition from the Allied Powers," Katsura Taro said seriously. "I know Saionji-kun believes that after the war in Europe ends, the Allied Powers will conduct a general reckoning with the People's Party. But at that time, it will be at most a new Eight-Nation Alliance situation. If Japan sends the most troops, what will we gain?"

"But at least we won't risk failure," Saionji Kinmochi replied with a firm attitude. "Japan has never faced a major power alone. We have always had clear support from all sides. In the current situation, we seemingly can get support from the Allied Powers, but this support will be very limited. In the Russo-Japanese War, we won only by raising huge amounts of funds. Takahashi-kun played a magnificent role in that. But what actual support can we get right now? Even if the British Far East Fleet can provide some support, we don't need that bit of support from them at all right now. War funds, military strength, even political support. We can't get anything right now. If we win, we only maintain the status quo. If we lose, it won't just be China's Northeast; the war will very likely reach Korea."

Katsura Taro had originally been able to converse with Saionji Kinmochi relatively calmly, but hearing Saionji's steadfast attitude, he became somewhat impatient. "Saionji-kun, which of the Imperial Kingdom's victories wasn't achieved under circumstances of extreme risk? Moreover, the People's Party has no navy. Even if we fail, we'll merely have another Sino-Japanese War in Korea."

Saionji Kinmochi was amused by Katsura Taro's words. "Katsura-kun, do you think the Manchu Qing army can compare to the People's Party's army?"

"..." This question really hit Katsura Taro's weak spot, and he had to fall silent again. The silence only lasted a moment before Katsura Taro said firmly, "Saionji-kun, we cannot *not* send troops now. On this matter, I believe you can still understand."

This time it was Saionji Kinmochi's turn to stay silent. One reason he opposed Katsura Taro's opinion was certainly the struggle between the Navy Ministry and the Army Ministry, but another reason was that Saionji was very worried about the odds of success. But returning to the question of whether they should send troops, Saionji had to admit that Japan indeed had a necessity to send troops now. Even based on the fact that the Japanese Army very likely could not defeat the People's Party, sending troops now was actually a better timing than sending troops later.

While in this dilemma, Saionji Kinmochi finally "remembered" Takahashi Korekiyo, who had been sitting quietly to the side. He turned and asked, "Takahashi-kun, what are your thoughts on sending troops?"

Takahashi Korekiyo knew clearly that he was just a bystander, at most a landlord providing the meeting venue. He absolutely hadn't expected Saionji Kinmochi to ask him. Even though Takahashi was currently the Prime Minister, he knew very well that he was just a transitional Prime Minister here to temporarily solve Japan's economic problems. Once Japan's economic problems were alleviated, he could step down at any time.

Even so, Takahashi Korekiyo didn't plan to stay completely out of it. This wasn't just about him taking office with Saionji Kinmochi's support, nor just because Takahashi himself was quite opposed to meaningless wars, especially this kind of gambling war. After thinking for a moment, Takahashi said, "There was a sentence Saionji-kun said just now that I think is very important. If we don't send troops, the People's Party may not dare to attack Korea, but if war starts, Korea may not necessarily escape attack."

As Japan's current colony, especially with the mining in northern Korea, Korea was very important to Japan. Takahashi Korekiyo didn't want to drag Korea into it because of the war.

After hearing this, Katsura Taro suddenly sneered. "Saionji-kun, the Navy has always been at sea, and I'm afraid you don't have as much intelligence on the land. Did you know that Miyazaki Toten has been contacting Korean rebels?"

"What?" Saionji Kinmochi was surprised by the sudden news.

"Saionji-kun can go investigate this matter freely. This isn't a story I fabricated to deceive everyone. Miyazaki Toten, that unpatriotic traitor, has joined the People's Party and is dedicated to winning over Korean rebels. What do you think the People's Party's purpose is in doing this? Is it not to seize Korea? Why else would they go to such trouble?" Katsura Taro spoke quite relaxed. Since he had figured out the Navy faction's bottom line during the conversation, Katsura already had confidence in his strategy. The Navy Ministry might not be willing to rashly intervene in Chinese affairs, but the Navy faction absolutely could not tolerate losing Korea.

Saionji Kinmochi knew very well that the People's Party's power had always been in central and southern China. This was the first time he had heard that the People's Party had intervened in Korean affairs. He looked at Katsura Taro suspiciously, strongly suspecting that Katsura had casually fabricated this news. for a figure like Katsura Taro, making up fake news to sound real wasn't difficult.

However, the mocking expression on Katsura Taro's face looked genuine no matter how one looked at it. This extremely unfriendly attitude actually gave Katsura Taro's words more credibility.

Katsura Taro laughed. "Saionji-kun, if the People's Party really wants to seize Korea, I would very much like to know the Navy Ministry's view."

Saionji Kinmochi didn't respond at all to Katsura Taro's provocative statement.

Although he didn't intentionally think this way, Katsura Taro felt that through this matter, the opportunity for the Army faction to once again lead the direction of Japanese political policy had finally arrived. And it didn't even require the drastic method of changing the Prime Minister. He couldn't help but glance at the somewhat bewildered current Prime Minister, Takahashi Korekiyo. Although Takahashi wasn't a man of the Army Ministry, Katsura still quite admired Takahashi's skills and ability in finance. If Takahashi Korekiyo were willing to join the Army faction, Katsura wouldn't mind letting Takahashi serve as Prime Minister for two more years.

Katsura Taro wasn't lying. The Army Ministry had received quite a few such reports in the past two years. From the Army Ministry's perspective, these Korean rebels couldn't actually stir up much trouble, and the People's Party was still thousands of miles away from Korea, so they hadn't treated this information as a big deal. In fact, Korea not only had rebels inclined towards China but also some inclined towards Russia. The Korean rebels who had turned to the Russians were actually more threatening.

Now this intelligence finally had a use. Without waiting for the Navy Ministry's factual investigation, the Army Ministry took the initiative to start promoting "forceful intervention in the Chinese situation" within the Japanese government. The People's Party's actions to plot for Korea were extremely clear, and the distance between the People's Party controlled areas and Korea had changed from thousands of miles to a few hundred miles.

For the Japanese upper echelons, whether they supported war or peace, there could be no compromise on the Korean issue. As Japan's first colony, Korea provided raw materials, markets, and manpower to Japan. Since the People's Party had cut off Japan's opportunity to obtain iron ore from China's Yangtze River basin, the iron mines in northern Korea had become Japan's largest source of ore. Starting in 1911, Japan stepped up mineral exploration in Korea. In 1912, they began investing in mining in northern Korea. The People's Party's attempt to seize Korea touched the interests of the entire Japanese government, military, and capitalists.

Japan was already full of hostility toward the People's Party, and now they were "enraged." Katsura Taro's proposal to "intervene in the Chinese civil war and ensure Japan's actual control over Northeast China" quickly received considerable support within Japan. Katsura Taro was quite satisfied with the political wind direction. Now what was needed was an excuse to incite public sentiment. However, as if a pie fell from the sky, an excuse appeared very quickly.

After the People's Party finally provided telegraph services to the legations of various countries in Beijing, and especially after they blockaded the Japanese garrison barracks in China but opened telegraph services for this army, the Japanese Legation began to strongly protest to the People's Party's "Beijing Occupation Force." Katsura Taro immediately ordered Japanese newspapers to publicize this matter widely, and a considerable portion of the Japanese public was enraged! China, Japan's defeated opponent, dared to threaten and harm the lives of the Japanese army like this?!

Starting from September 6th, first Japanese patriotic youth "spontaneously took to the streets," followed by various forces instigated from behind taking to the streets to demonstrate, and advocating for war in papers and public opinion. On September 9th, the slogan "Punish the Violent Sina, Restore Peace" appeared in Japan.

While Japan began entering the preparation stage for war, People's Party representatives had already formally contacted the British and French ministers on September 4th. From the moment both sides sat at the negotiating table, they engaged in frank conversations and fully exchanged opinions. Britain naturally demanded that the People's Party recognize all treaties of the Manchu Qing, while the People's Party demanded the restoration of China's full sovereignty.

Of course, negotiations always started like this. The British didn't care, and Zhang Yu didn't care either. The representatives selected by Zhang Yu were all very young. Even though these young people knew this was an inevitable process, when the British representatives went through the routine of imperialist threats and intimidation, the young comrades were all quite angered by the British representatives.

Zhang Yu said cheerfully, "Isn't this quite normal? Don't be angry. It's still what I said before: don't listen to what they say, but watch what they do. I wonder if everyone noticed, but the British didn't mention trade issues at all?"

The young comrades had good memories, but they were afraid they hadn't paid attention to such things, so they read the meeting minutes again. Sure enough, apart from empty threats and a pile of other meaningless nonsense, the British representatives hadn't mentioned a single word about trade, let alone using the interruption of trade as a condition for blackmail.

Zhang Yu said seriously, "Comrades, since we have our own patriotism, we cannot despise or deny the patriotism of others. From the British Minister's perspective, seeking maximum benefit for Britain is his duty. Except for different standpoints, we are no different from the British Minister."

The next day, September 5th, the negotiations continued. The British Minister acted as if he had never made any demands yesterday; his standpoint hadn't changed, but the content of the discussion was vastly different. Britain asked the People's Party representatives if the People's Party would be willing to accept the treaties signed between Yuan Shikai and the Allied Powers. Zhang Yu, also acting as if nothing had happened yesterday, expressed with a bright attitude, "We agree to join the Allied Powers, but we cannot provide troops militarily. We can only provide twenty thousand military doctors and nurses."

The British Minister was stunned by this reply. Before the negotiation, the British Minister had considered that the People's Party, leveraging their victory over the Beiyang forces, might make various unreasonable demands, or even threaten to join the Central Powers. He precisely hadn't expected that the People's Party's diplomatic philosophy would be so mature and rational. However, in the agreement signed between the British Minister and Beiyang, Beiyang had agreed to provide over five hundred thousand troops. When it came to the People's Party, five hundred thousand troops turned into twenty thousand military doctors and nurses. The gap was simply too large.

Of course, military doctors and nurses were also very important. For the war, the Allied Powers had conscripted a large number of doctors, and according to the news the British Minister received, this had a considerable negative impact on medical care in the British homeland.

The People's Party's performance was too unexpected, and the British representatives proposed a temporary recess. Zhang Yu agreed.

"The European war is an unjust war between imperialist countries. Why should we join the Allied Powers?" The young comrades were very puzzled by this.

Zhang Yu replied, "The victor of this war will inevitably dominate the world situation. China's future can no longer be closed-door isolationism, so we must participate. Of course, we have no reason to sacrifice the lives of Chinese soldiers for an unjust imperialist war. We can only provide medical help."

"Minister Zhang, Japan is a member of the Allied Powers. Why should we continue to provoke them? If we join the Allied Powers, we will have absolutely no chance to go to war with Japan," Li Runshi asked.

Zhang Yu smiled. "If we don't prove we can fight better than Japan, the Allied Powers won't value us at all. Only by fighting Japan can we leave the Allied Powers with one less helper. This is more beneficial for us joining the Allied Powers. So only by defeating Japan can we prove that we can create bigger problems for the Allied Powers in the Far East."

Li Runshi wasn't satisfied by Zhang Yu's answer. He pressed, "Even if the Allied Powers give up on the Far East, it won't have too big an impact on the entire European war effort. And if China becomes completely hostile to the Allied Powers, after the European war ends, we will be in an extremely disadvantageous position. Unless there is some turning point that allows the Allied Powers to ignore our war with Japan. Minister Zhang, where exactly is this turning point?"

Zhang Yu nodded with gratification. "Chairman Chen has his own plans for this, but regarding the specific turning point, the Central Committee can only wait and see for now. However, going to war with Japan is the Central Committee's decision, so this matter doesn't need to be discussed further. We just need to complete the work at hand."