Chapter 55: 53 Wartime Line (5)
Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 55
The discussion regarding the "Ultimate Strategic Goal" had been relatively normal during the day; everyone was at least discussing it. But when night came, You Gou returned home, ate dinner, and sat in front of the map, staring blankly. After coaxing the child to sleep, He Zudao saw You Gou still staring at the map as if in meditation and asked curiously, "What place are you looking at?"
You Gou pointed to the Southeast Asia region. "There are five countries there."
He Zudao took a glance and answered with some confusion, "Indeed, there are five countries. Britain, the Netherlands, the United States, France, and Siam."
"Only these five countries exist," You Gou couldn't help but ask again.
"Correct," He Zudao replied. Then he saw You Gou get up to make a phone call.
After a while, He Zudao saw You Gou return and say, "You sleep, I'm not coming back tonight."
Watching You Gou hurry out the door, this time it was He Zudao's turn to sit in front of the map and look. He Zudao could roughly guess what You Gou was worried about. The Military Commission had already confirmed the southward plan; the only thing not determined was the extent of the southward advance. In earlier years, China's strategy had both northward and southward options. After establishing a stable northern border with the Soviet Union, China only had the southward path left. However, He Zudao's gaze did not go straight to Australia but turned from Yunnan to Burma, and then to India in the west. Strategically, this was a knife thrust straight into the heart of Britain, and it was also the campaign the Military Commission had discussed most recently.
You Gou knew her family situation was special. The couple couldn't discuss any work, as discussing it would involve leaking secrets. During the day, You Gou hadn't reacted, but by night, the huge shock, accompanied by her understanding of the strategy, turned into genuine horror. You Gou called several Standing Committee members, and they were all wide awake. You Gou simply proposed an overnight meeting, which was approved by everyone.
The meeting quickly turned into an inquiry session. Of the five countries in Southeast Asia, the United States could not be fought. There was no need to fight Siam; it was too busy taking care of itself, so keeping Siam in a state of benevolent neutrality would suffice. As for Annam, controlled by France, given its strength, it could be solved casually.
The only two enemies were the Netherlands and Britain. Fighting the Netherlands required the navy to conduct cross-sea operations. Fighting Britain would be a war challenging the current hegemon of the world. Following the sea route along the Southeast Asian peninsula would be enough for the southward advance. As for wanting to threaten Britain, one would march from Yunnan to liberate Burma, then attack India. In this part of the plan, China would mostly be conducting land warfare, and the navy could also receive support from land-based aircraft.
You Gou managed industry. She knew very well how much effort Chen Ke had poured into the air force, and she knew what fighters, bombers, and torpedo bombers were for. You Gou was also very clear on the use of the radar being developed by the People's Party in war.
From this perspective, this was clearly a war in two stages. If the initial war could successfully achieve its goals, and the United States did not intervene in the Western Pacific war, Australia and New Zealand would be within China's striking range, isolated and helpless. Currently, these two countries were still British territories. Since they were beating Britain, there was no need to let these two places go.
A strategy that seemed grand to the point of absurdity appeared before the eyes of the other Standing Committee members, including You Gou, like a complete jigsaw puzzle. After reflection and fermentation, You Gou and the others finally understood where the "temptation" Chen Ke spoke of lay—this strategy was not impossible to realize. If Australia and New Zealand were excluded, the probability of realizing this strategy exceeded fifty percent. Among the neighbors bordering China, none could withstand a blow from China's 8 million troops.
"What if it's a phased operation?" You Gou felt her heart pounding violently. She was also 46 years old, soon to be over half a century. But the excitement at this moment was as uncontrollable as a teenager's.
"The trap I mentioned lies precisely here," Chen Ke was quite calm. "This strategy is exactly impossible to implement in phases. War is uncontrollable; either do it to the end or don't do it at all. The moment bandits sit down to divide the spoils, they are reduced to the role of petty thieves. In a foreign war, unless we fight until the opponent kneels in surrender, the moment we switch between offense and defense, we turn from attacking to passively taking a beating. This is the biggest trap in this; one cannot think that war is controllable. War is completely uncontrollable. World War I is a clear example."
Apart from Chen Ke, the only person here with military experience was Zhang Yu. After hearing Chen Ke's words, Zhang Yu nodded repeatedly. His finger pointed to the Dutch colonies. "What if we learn from the United States and only fight the Netherlands? Then we'll hold out there and wait for other countries to make the first move. If they don't move, we'll have new oil bases in addition to the oil already extracted in the Daqing area."
"Although the variables are large, this is controllable," Chen Ke replied. "However, if we only take this military objective as the ultimate goal, I am completely unclear about the future variables."
Zhang Yu laughed. "Being able to consider it to this extent, you can no longer be considered human. You should at least act like a human for once; don't calculate everything without a doubt."
This joke eased the atmosphere. Qi Huishen finally had a chance to speak. "If it's the Netherlands, the matter is easy to handle. What reason did the United States need to fight Spain? As long as the United States doesn't join the war, we and Britain are neighbors. Britain has to consider India at least."
"Start a war with just any random excuse?" Chen Tianhua was frightened by the style of conversation in the Politburo, which was so imperialist, although he himself actually didn't dislike such a style. As a Chinese person, especially an educated Chinese person, as long as their spine hadn't been completely broken, the imperial pride precipitated in the profound culture was an instinct. This had nothing to do with believing in Marxism or historical materialism. On the matter of expanding territory, there was only whether it could be done and whether it was worth it, not the consideration of whether it *should* be done.
For a whole night, the five Standing Committee members discussed the various possible traps hidden in the southward plan. Since war was uncontrollable, what should be done was a comprehensive analysis of the dangers contained within.
The five Standing Committee members reached a tentative attitude. The next few days would be a joint discussion between the Military Commission and a portion of the Politburo personnel to modify and adjust the entire strategy. There were 12 people participating in the confidential discussion. This process was very troublesome. Everyone who participated in the discussion fell into the "strategic trap" that Chen Ke and the Standing Committee members had fallen into. The ultimate Australian trap offered too much temptation to the comrades. Millions of square kilometers of new territory was a temptation that Chinese people could essentially not resist.
The final result was very conservative. Eliminating the Dutch presence in the Western Pacific became the first choice. Borneo at least had the issue of the restoration of the Lanfang Republic. From the captured Manchu documents, there were relevant records. This was a part that could be utilized.
This encountered a problem. The Lanfang Republic had already been destroyed. This could serve as rhetoric after occupation, but it could not serve as a reason to start a war.
Chen Ke didn't care at all. "The noose to hang the capitalists is always sold to us by the capitalists themselves. All we have to do is make preparations, and then wait. Looking at the current data, the Great Depression is already inevitable. That will be a Great Depression that will open the comrades' eyes wide. The free-market capitalism currently popular all over the world will be completely finished in the coming economic crisis. We can all witness this historical moment with our own eyes."
Chinese dynasties changed, and even Chinese civilization had entered and exited the trash heap of history several times. The capitalist system was so prosperous now, but viewed from the perspective of "prosperity must decline" accumulated by China in its history of flowing blood, a total collapse was not difficult for Chinese people to understand.
Perhaps even more surprising were the candidates for the 12 people Chen Ke convened to participate in the strategic discussion. Chen Ke, Shang Yuan, You Gou, Chen Tianhua, Zhang Yu, Qi Huishen, and Xu Dian—these seven were not surprising. The addition of He Zudao and Pu Guanshui was also not strange. The three young comrades, Li Runshi, Wu Xiangyu, and Ren Guopei, were surprising. Ren Guopei was very young, but he was recommended by Ren Qiying and received strong approval from Qi Huishen. This comrade's character belonged to the type who "if he can walk a hundred steps, he won't walk ninety-nine." He was a down-to-earth, willing, selfless, and fearless person. Qi Huishen had privately praised him, saying that there were many in the Organization Department with higher qualifications than him, but few who were better people than him, and in terms of future prospects, no one could surpass him.
The addition of several young comrades made the old guys at the meeting feel that Chen Ke was arranging his affairs for after he was gone.
After discussion, the Central Committee decided that starting from 1929, the economy would tilt towards military expansion and war preparations. Although the comrades were not too clear on exactly how the Netherlands would dig its own grave, they could probably imagine that the Dutch would likely lay hands on the overseas Chinese in the Dutch colonies. The problem was, to what degree of stupidity did the Netherlands have to reach to dare to brazenly lay hands on Chinese overseas Chinese? Looking at Chen Ke's meaning, the Netherlands would definitely be that stupid. This kind of prediction had Chen Ke's style; he just dared to predict that the enemy would commit acts of stupidity with no lower limit, and then the People's Party, which had long been prepared, would pounce and solve the enemy.
With a mood of nervousness, longing, and disbelief, the high-level officials of the People's Party waited to see the "historical moment" predicted by Chen Ke.
The occurrence of the "historical moment" was actually quite normal. The People's Party vigorously aided the Soviet Union, and Soviet industry and agriculture recovered quickly. In order to fully develop trade, the Soviet Union made full use of its own resources and began to export timber in large quantities at cheap prices. This could probably be called the last straw that broke the camel's back. The real root of the disease was in the United States.
After World War I, the United States had a large amount of investment in Europe, a large part of which was in Germany. German industry recovered quickly. The markets of China and the Soviet Union were both new markets opened up by Germany, yet Germany faced a problem. Germany's industry was revived with borrowed money. France was crazily pressing for debt repayment, and Germany had to have sufficient profits to repay the debts.
Neither China's nor the Soviet Union's currency was on the gold standard, so they couldn't be used as internationally accepted payment currencies. China also insisted on a trade balance policy. In order to expand trade with China, countries had to increase their exports to China to some extent.
The British, who controlled the dominance of world trade, were the first to discover this problem, so Britain accepted Renminbi as an international currency to a limited extent in the Asian region. Germany was very far from Asia, so this policy was of no use to Germany. Added to the "military cooperation" between China and Germany, the former German General Staff conducted a large amount of private trade in technology. The German army, intending revenge, had money, but German trade suffered great losses.
The Soviet Union was willing to import technology from Germany, but suffered from having no hard currency gold. Trade between China and the Soviet Union was barter trade; no matter how big the business was, there was no hard currency income. They could only rely on exporting large amounts of cheap timber to earn foreign exchange. Prior to this, after European agriculture finally recovered from the impact of World War I, it directly led to a reduction in European demand for North American grain. The spread of synthetic ammonia increased grain yields. Although the Soviet Union did not act as fiercely in Ukraine as in history, and even because European grain recovered earlier, the Soviet Union lost the opportunity to sell grain cheaply to earn foreign exchange. The Soviet Union then further intensified competitive price-cutting in the timber market.
Chen Ke had once thought that the market development of China and the Soviet Union would delay the economic crisis. The cruel reality proved that the consumption power of China and the Soviet Union could not increase the world's total consumption volume at all. The illusion of the Sino-Soviet market, especially the Chinese market, instead stimulated the production desire of the United States and Europe. The plan to go to China to earn money actually turned into the fact of going to China's Jiangsu to earn money. The People's Party's trade was concentrated in raw materials, industrial machinery, and industrial technology introduction. No matter how large the trade volume, the profits went to large monopoly capitalists; small and medium capitalists were not able to benefit from it.
The oil consortiums, the steel and machinery consortiums, and the special interest groups that owned large amounts of land and could produce raw materials in large quantities—these top British and American capitalists were very friendly towards China and were considered "old friends of China." Such a small handful of "old friends of China" monopolized more than 80% of China's foreign trade. They made pots of money, but not a cent landed in the pockets of the British and American people. British and American small and medium capital fought with bloody heads for the less than 20% share of China trade. Of course there were those who made money, and even big money, but more were losers in the competition.
The economic crisis brewed and fermented at an astonishing speed. Speculation ran rampant within the United States, the stock market climbed crazily, and the United States began to withdraw overseas funds to participate in this feast of the U.S. stock market. On October 24, 1929, the United States welcomed its "Black Thursday." On this day, the U.S. financial world collapsed. Stocks fell from the peak into the abyss overnight, and the price drop was so fast that the automatic stock ticker couldn't keep up. October 29, 1929, was a Tuesday, and on this day the New York stock market crash reached its extreme point, so some people also used "Black Tuesday" to refer to this event. Within just two short weeks from October 29 to November 13, 1929, a total of 30 billion U.S. dollars in wealth disappeared, equivalent to the total expenditure of the United States in World War I. But the collapse of the U.S. stock market was merely the crater of the eruption of a disastrous economic crisis.
In order to save the stock crisis, the United States began to frantically withdraw dollars from overseas. Small capital overseas immediately suffered unbearable blows, and China's Jiangsu was one of these small capitals.
The Americans who were originally queuing up to invest in Jiangsu immediately turned into a group queuing up to withdraw dollars from Jiangsu banks. Jiangsu's foreign exchange reserves were still okay, and this wave of withdrawals was withstood. The next round of blows was even more ferocious. Orders signed between the United States and Jiangsu were cancelled in large numbers.
To produce these goods, the Jiangsu national capitalists had paid money for the early purchase of raw materials and the distribution of wages. The sales link in economic production was described by Marx as a "thrilling leap." When the economy was good, this leap seemed logical and natural. Now, the Jiangsu national capitalists discovered that this leap had become a "chasm."
Without an external market, what was the use of a pile of goods accumulated in hand? During the years of the feast in Jiangsu, in order to expand production, this group of national capitalists was heavily in debt. Many debts were due in the short term. If they didn't make money, what would they use to repay the debt?
The People's Party's market was close at hand, but the Jiangsu national capitalists discovered that their previous practice of crazily raising funds from the surrounding areas controlled by the People's Party was now bearing its own bitter fruit. The surrounding areas also had no cash, and even if Jiangsu sold at a loss, they couldn't sell. Selling at a loss meant a huge loss in cash recovery, and the speed of cash recovery did not become faster just because of the increased speed of selling at a loss.
Some Jiangsu national capitalists prepared to wait a little longer, but the stock market reacted one step ahead. In order to raise funds, a large number of speculators began to crazily sell stocks to cash out. Jiangsu stock prices fell as crazily as the U.S. stock market. Many people immediately became heavily indebted. In December 1929, floating corpses of those who successfully committed suicide by jumping into the river began to appear in the Yangtze River beside Nanjing.
This was a classic textbook case of a capitalist economic crisis. The People's Party mobilized all intelligence sources to organize studies within the party and broadcast the process in its entirety. Such a living drama shook the entire People's Party. Especially those civil servants who had privately invested in the Jiangsu stock market and suffered heavy losses suffered almost unhealable trauma to their souls.