赤色黎明 (English Translation)

— "The horizon before dawn shall be red as blood"

Chapter 60: 58 Wartime Line (10)

Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 60

In 1932, the Great Depression had reached its climax. It was a nightmarish memory for laborers all over the world. The economic recession in Europe and America had hit its peak. The United States had 13.7 million unemployed, Germany 5.6 million, and Britain 2.8 million. It was estimated that in 1929, the operating rate of the entire US industry only reached 80%, and the investment amount (calculated in 1958 US dollars) dropped from 40.4 billion US dollars in 1929 to 27.4 billion US dollars in 1930, and further decreased to 4.7 billion US dollars in 1932.

Germany was even more miserable, burdened with the heavy debt pressure of the Versailles System. Under the economic crisis, France frantically pressed Germany for debt repayment. The Weimar government had no choice but to resort to printing massive amounts of banknotes to repay debts through inflation, leading to the Mark depreciating at a terrifying speed. At that time, the face value of German currency had reached 20 billion. The value to buy one egg was equivalent to buying 30 million eggs in the past. The movie "Isn't Life Wonderful?", which depicted the miserable state of affairs at that time, described such a scene: a person forgot a basket full of money on the street; the money was dumped on the ground, and the basket was stolen. The Mark had turned into waste paper, and the unemployment rate of the German people had long exceeded 50%.

Grain prices collapsed worldwide. In all capitalist industrial nations, agriculture faced the predicament of bankruptcy almost entirely.

While the whole world was wailing in anguish, only two countries presented a completely different situation. That was the Soviet Union and China.

The Soviet Union's planned economy simply did not have any unemployment problems. The powerful planning bureaucracy adopted a production mode of distorted supply and demand and forced distribution. The state arranged all consumption for the people, including food, clothing, housing, and transportation. As long as this system did not collapse, there was no such thing as an economic crisis.

China's situation was even more worthy of pondering: fixed grain prices, stable currency, and massive infrastructure investment. Compared with world investments, China's massive investment was extremely "forward-looking". According to statistics, starting from 1926, China's funds used for scientific and technological research and development as well as education exceeded 15% of the total value of industrial and agricultural production. The trade balance policy protected China's economic territory. China no longer needed to provide gold to the United States as it did during World War I. Using only the gold stored within China as collateral, the United States and Britain were willing to provide credit loans to China for China to purchase American and British goods.

In the West Pacific Economic Zone, China's economy was stable, its currency was stable, and supply and demand were stable. The RMB, as an important settlement currency in the West Pacific Economic Zone, relied on China's massive economy to present a super-stable posture. As long as the West Pacific could be integrated into China's economic circle and participate in China's economic circulation system, they could rely on the Chinese market to obtain a stable life. From large ships to small needles and threads, China could produce them all. This Chinese market imported a large amount of raw materials and high-tech products. If the prices of certain commodities were truly ridiculously low, China would even import them. Of course, the premise was the willingness to settle in RMB. Within just a few years, the credit of the RMB had been established.

All of this relied on the development of China's banking services. China's major commercial banks had established their own overseas branches in many cities in Southeast Asia, implementing cross-region remittance and settlement businesses. When going out to do business, it was impossible to carry bundles of banknotes on one's shoulder, and this was even more true for cross-ocean trade. For example, if someone deposited 1 million RMB in the Manila Branch of the China Construction Bank and then ran to the Guangzhou Branch of the China Construction Bank in China to withdraw this 1 million RMB, the simplest way was for the Guangzhou branch to contact the Manila branch to confirm if such a thing existed. Moreover, they also had to determine the reliability of the deposit slips, withdrawal slips, etc., carried by the withdrawer. They also had to determine if this guy belonged to a fraud gang and if he had utilized the time difference to run to the Guangzhou branch in China to withdraw the money again after withdrawing it at another branch.

If there were only three or five transactions, the bank's dedicated telegraph communication could still handle it, but the larger the volume of data coming and going, the longer the time required. Moreover, many business amounts were not large, just deposit and withdrawal of a few dozen yuan, so the priority for sending telegrams was ranked last. Banks have always been one of the biggest customers of computer networks, and also the customers with the highest security requirements. This is not without reason.

In the 1930s, at least wireless telegraphy was popular in the world. If it were in earlier times, without telegraphs, the so-called "endorsement" would appear, which meant that some withdrawal slips paid in foreign countries had the credit guarantee of big banks on the back. If this slip was a fraudulent one, the big bank would have to bear the responsibility for this "endorsed" slip. This is also one of the origins of the modern credit system in Europe and America. Foreigners attach great importance to "signatures" because after signing, one has to bear the responsibility.

The biggest difference between the People's Party and the Soviet Union lay in the fact that it attached great importance to the construction of the financial and banking industry. A lot of construction had been done in this regard domestically for many years. During the Great Depression, the Bank of China finally went to the West Pacific. It became an important financial force in the West Pacific region and also became one of the most important economic pillars of the West Pacific economy.

It is inevitable that a tall tree catches the wind. For example, the Netherlands obviously had a different attitude from Britain. After having the support of China's banks in the West Pacific, the overseas Chinese finally found a big backer. In the past, the money they earned could only be kept at home, or placed in Dutch banks, and the richer ones could put it in British banks. The People's Party had also worked hard in Southeast Asia for nearly twenty years. With the services of China's banks, most overseas Chinese deposited their money in the Bank of China.

Before the economic crisis, the Netherlands might still have been able to turn a blind eye to this. After the outbreak of the economic crisis, foreign banks collapsed in large numbers, especially in the Dutch Asian colonies. A considerable number of the collapsed banks were due to Chinese overseas Chinese withdrawing money from Dutch banks and depositing it into the Bank of China.

As the Great Depression intensified, the Netherlands also needed to extract funds from the colonies back to the European mainland to save its domestic economy. But it just happened that there was no money to extract. The mentality of the colonialists was simple: to constantly draw blood from the colonies. The colonies were like pig farms owned by the colonialists. Feeding the pigs fat was only to eat more meat. As for the feelings of the pigs themselves, the colonialists did not care at all. If they were forced to care a little, it was only to eat meat more effectively and for a longer term. With China as a backer for the overseas Chinese, the Dutch really felt that they could not tolerate it.

The People's Party soon received the news, and the reaction to this was quite calm. This matter would happen sooner or later; it was impossible for it not to happen. Since the Netherlands had already been regarded as a war target, the only question the People's Party had to ask was, "Is China ready for war?"

This would be a cross-sea expedition, a type of war that China had not conducted for hundreds of years. This would also be a war that changed the situation in Southeast Asia. As the saying goes, once the bow is drawn, there is no turning back arrow. Once this step was taken, China would have no way back. Chen Ke wanted to prepare for a few more years. Deep research into vacuum tubes had already begun, and research into transistors and lasers had also reached the final stage. It was unknown when breakthrough progress would be achieved. No one in this world understood the significance of these two technological breakthroughs better than Chen Ke. As long as a breakthrough was achieved, as long as the simplest microcontroller could be put into actual combat application, it was unlikely for China to fail. Even when facing the United States, it would be the same.

However, many things did not shift according to China's will. Once the Netherlands made a move, China had to respond with a tough attitude. This was a choice with no other way out. Because if the Netherlands dared to start this, and if China only knew how to protest, it would trigger a chain reaction throughout Southeast Asia. China's layout in Southeast Asia would immediately suffer enormous losses.

By June 1932, Chen Ke finally issued the order to prepare for war. China hereupon entered the wartime track.