Chapter 87: 85 Looking South (5)
Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 87
Gu Weijun had been getting annoyed with the negotiations recently. When both negotiating parties lacked a common standpoint, in the words of the *jianghu*, it was called "when words do not agree, even half a sentence is too much." Both sides sat there talking with flying spittle, discussing back and forth only one thing: "We have deep contradictions between us that must be resolved by war!"
The Netherlands actually did not want to talk to China. Recently, the Netherlands had also worked hard to launch a public opinion war in Europe, loudly proclaiming that China was the "Yellow Peril" and the chief culprit threatening world peace. It was just that the Europe and America of this time were completely different from the Europe and America of 35 years ago. The Soviet Union was rejected by Europe and the United States, so naturally, it refused to participate in the anti-China rhetoric. Germany welcomed any policy that could attract the attention of Britain and France, only with the attitude of "you go die, I'll make the money." Germany asked the Netherlands if they wanted to buy German weapons and equipment.
With the Germans being so enthusiastic, France naturally couldn't let it pass. The French had absolutely no interest in sending tens of thousands of people to China to die, but selling equipment to the Netherlands was no problem at all. France stated that it could provide any amount of military equipment to the Netherlands.
The British wanted to maintain the face of the world's boss, but like other European countries, Britain did not want to send an army to fight a war with China's millions of troops on the Asian mainland. The Netherlands was a European country, that was true. But even if the Dutch were sold out completely, the money from selling them would simply not be enough to support a war involving millions of soldiers and flying flesh and blood.
As for the United States, Roosevelt and the American *zaibatsu* could not find any reason to truly stick their necks out for the Netherlands. The Netherlands had participated in that anti-China maritime alliance led by Japan; in the eyes of any European or American country, this was a naked military provocation. It was not inconceivable in this world for the Chinese to settle accounts after the autumn harvest. When the United States seized the Philippines controlled by Spain back then, the excuse was even manufactured by the United States itself. The only accident in this matter was that the weak country of China from decades ago had made a move, but what did this have to do with the United States? Spend huge funds to go to war with China? What the United States needed right now was a large amount of funds to save the American economy.
The key to all this lay in cost. China's army was difficult to defeat, its naval power was not weak, and its air force was a first-rate air force in Asia. The cost of a war with China was too high. All countries determined that this was a war where small-scale intervention was meaningless, and large-scale intervention showed no benefits at all. The Dutch running around and crying out in Europe appeared useless. In desperation, the Netherlands ran to Japan, requesting Japan to send troops.
Before the Japanese military headquarters had any ideas, Kita Ikki leaked the news. According to the intelligence provided by Kita Ikki, Japan's attitude was exactly the same as that of France and Germany. Japan was willing to provide any amount of weapons and equipment to the Netherlands on a cash payment basis. As long as the Netherlands paid enough money, selling the Combined Fleet to the Netherlands would be no problem.
Gu Weijun was a very serious person, but after receiving this news, he felt a sense of not knowing whether to laugh or cry. Before the war started, every high-level official felt uneasy. Only Chen Ke alone maintained an appearance as if nothing was happening. After the war started, at least in the early stages of the war, the whole situation presented a posture extremely favorable to China. Gu Weijun now understood what a leader was. A leader was someone who, when others couldn't understand the situation, clearly saw the development of the general trend. By the time the leader made a move, the outcome was already set.
Of course, what Gu Weijun admired even more was that Chen Ke did not have the slightest arrogance. Before the war started, Chen Ke had ordered that this war must be completely ended before 1937 no matter what. Since Chen Ke said so, Gu Weijun could only believe what Chen Ke said, "By 1934, the Great Depression will have temporarily ended. At this time, all countries are desperately restoring production and have no strength to participate in this military conflict between China and the Netherlands. But by 1937 at the latest, the crisis of the later stage of the Great Depression will break out. At that time, countries will have exhausted their domestic means, and will either have revolutions break out or go to foreign wars. Our strategic window of opportunity is only this little bit of time."
Negotiations continued intermittently like this. By mid-September 1935, Gu Weijun learned that China had already conquered Sulawesi Island, and new attacks against the islands of New Guinea had also begun. The Dutch Navy and those warships "leased" from Britain had never participated in the fighting. This navy had been cruising between Java and Sumatra, centered on Malacca. Judging by their posture, they wanted to prevent China from attacking these areas.
According to Gu Weijun's judgment, this was also the British bottom line: they absolutely could not accept China threatening shipping in the Strait of Malacca. These were also Chen Ke's "relatively optimistic" judgments. China seizing Borneo, which was currently a barren land, and the islands west of Borneo would not go so far as to trigger a fierce military conflict. If China wanted to seize the Strait of Malacca, a key point in the Western Pacific, the British would not sit idly by.
Gu Weijun knew very well that what China really wanted was this piece of land. This land possessed a large amount of oil. It was said there was a very optimistic estimate that the oil output in this area could exceed 15 million tons per year. Added to China's existing domestic output of 15 million tons, China could have an oil output of over 30 million tons a year.
The most absurd thing was that Britain actually hadn't interrupted its oil trade with China. According to the oil trade of over 20 million tons a year reached between China and Britain, plus the 20 million tons of oil trade between China and the United States, China would have an oil supply of 70 million tons in the coming year.
Even if he didn't understand military affairs, Gu Weijun still felt a thick flavor of conspiracy in this. An indescribable sense of dissonance made Gu Weijun feel very uncomfortable.
The frontline troops didn't consider so much. Not encountering enemies at sea was a very relaxing thing for China. The biggest problem now was not the enemy, but that the Dutch East Indies really had countless islands. Just looking at the map of these densely packed islands made one dizzy. Even if China only occupied the northern islands, wanting to visit them one by one was a difficult matter.
Thinking of the islands, ships had to be used. Using ships meant consuming fuel. The inventory of fuel quickly showed a significant shortage. Frontline commanders all suggested gathering forces to go south and take down the core lands of the Dutch East Indies, Java and Sumatra, in one fell swoop. This encountered a paradox again. To attack, one needed good military bases, which required a large amount of hydrological data. Running back and forth from island to island was a prerequisite again. Being anxious was useless.
The British Minister to China was a relatively troubled person recently. The British homeland delayed giving instructions. The Dutch Minister cried to the British Minister every day about China's tyranny. Combining intelligence from all sides, the British Minister came to a very absurd conclusion. If China was only satisfied with the islands already controlled and did not continue south, Britain would probably sell out the Netherlands.
One look at the map made it clear. Whether it was Borneo or Sulawesi, they were surrounded by Britain and the Netherlands. But once China continued south, taking Sumatra would mean controlling half of Malacca. Taking Java would cut off the connection between Britain and Australia. As long as Britain wasn't prepared to wade into this muddy water and prepare for a full-scale war with China, Britain had no reason to stop China from going south.
Then looking at this problem from another angle where Britain acknowledged China's hegemony in the Far East, it would be completely different. Selling the Netherlands would be of great benefit to Britain. As long as China stopped at the two large islands and a group of small islands currently obtained, the oil in Balikpapan would be a benefit that could temporarily satisfy China's appetite. That way, the alliance between Britain and the Netherlands in Southeast Asia would not be destroyed, and islands like Sumatra and Java would still construct a defense line guarding against a Chinese attack on Australia.
It would naturally be best if China could withdraw its troops. Even if China didn't withdraw, it couldn't continue south. Selling the Netherlands became a quite meaningful option. As for what China would do in the future, that would be discussed in the future. One had to know that 30 years ago, the British fleet was still running rampant in China's Yangtze River. It wasn't that Britain didn't want to fight, but that Britain really didn't have the strength to fight anymore.
The Governor-General of the Netherlands was certainly not a fool. The news coming from everywhere made him feel an increasing flavor of betrayal. Britain restraining the Netherlands from acting against the Chinese in the Dutch East Indies already proved that the British had other thoughts. Expelling the Chinese, confiscating Chinese property—the result after doing this would naturally be completely tearing up the face with China. The British made it clear they didn't want to tear up the face with China.
If the Dutch could decide the world's development with their own ideas, their request would naturally be for China to completely withdraw from the Dutch East Indies and then pay a large sum of money to the Netherlands. It was just that the Netherlands knew very well this was unrealistic. No war fought to this stage would have the side that had already achieved major victories make such concessions to the losing side.
The British privately expressed their stance. The Dutch authorities remained tough on the surface, implementing curfews and adopting a superficial high-pressure policy towards the Chinese. But it stopped there. There were no acts of mass internment of Chinese in concentration camps or confiscation of Chinese property. In internal discussions, the Netherlands had already considered the situation where the outcome was quite unfavorable.
"From the situation obtained from Britain, Britain cannot accept China pressing on the Strait of Malacca, and even less can it accept China cutting off the maritime passage between Britain and Australia," the Dutch special envoy said with a somewhat worried look.
Britain originally didn't want to send troops directly. Once the Netherlands laid a murderous hand on the Chinese in the Dutch East Indies, Britain's stance of wanting to mediate would probably retreat. The Netherlands wasn't a "two-bit" country like Japan that only thought of taking advantage to the death regarding any treaty. At any rate, the Netherlands had also been the "Sea Coachman" hundreds of years ago and had contended with Britain at sea. Seeing Britain's attitude, the Netherlands already knew things couldn't go according to the Netherlands' ideas.
"If China satisfies Britain's conditions, where will Britain's stance stand?" the Dutch Governor-General asked, also frowning. The fleet nominally "leased" to the Netherlands was now strolling near Malacca. As the former Sea Coachman, the Dutch side was very clear about the British thoughts. As long as Britain and China reached an agreement, the British would throw the Dutch flag into the water and pretend nothing had happened. What the British cared about was only Malacca.
"Is Europe's dominance in Asia ending here?" asked one of the meeting participants.
Hearing this, the faces of the Dutch East Indies authorities turned very ugly, half angry and half sorrowful. But things were this cruel. Since Britain and the Netherlands had run rampant in Asia relying on strong ships and sharp cannons, facing even stronger ships and sharp cannons, they could only kneel.
By October 4th, the British Minister to China finally received instructions from home to "mediate" this matter. Contrary to the British Minister's expectations, the British homeland's bottom line was to reach a Sino-British agreement on the Western Pacific as much as possible. Even if it meant ultimately sacrificing certain Dutch interests, a new treaty on the Western Pacific order had to be reached.
The reason the instruction from home surprised the British Minister was that the Minister thought this instruction came too late. If Britain could have made such a reaction earlier, the situation in the Western Pacific would only be better than it was now. China was a great power beyond Britain's imagination. China's population was larger than the population of the entire British Commonwealth. Not incorporating such a country into the system established by Britain meant China's only choice was to go its own way.
As for Dutch interests, what did that have to do with Britain? Britain was a country that could ally with a country in the morning and turn hostile in the afternoon. Only eternal interests, no eternal friends. This was the only principle of British diplomacy. Those old masters at home still looked at China with old eyes, thinking China didn't have enough ability to shake the world. Only after the Netherlands was beaten up by China rolling up its sleeves did Britain realize something was wrong.
Similarly, the British Minister also understood that this was a negotiation to determine enemy or friend relations. If China was determined to shake Britain's colonial system, such negotiations were destined to fail. So after enduring a day and a night, the British Minister finally wrote a proposal.
After Chen Ke finished reading the proposal, he didn't speak. He didn't care much about the content of the proposal. For Chen Ke, who knew some history of World War II, this content had no novelty at all.
When the Little Mustache prepared to launch World War II back then, Chamberlain, with France's agreement, dragged his aging body and flew to Munich for the first time in his life, then took a train to Berchtesgaden where Hitler's villa was located. Hitler did not go to the airport or train station to welcome him according to diplomatic protocol, but only waited quietly on the steps of the villa for Chamberlain's "visit." For a head of government, this was indeed an unusual cold shoulder. On the day Chamberlain arrived, he held talks with Hitler. Hitler aggressively threatened Chamberlain, saying that if a conflict arose over the Sudetenland issue, he was "prepared to meet any war... would never retreat a step." He asked Chamberlain, "Does the British government agree to the cession of the Sudetenland?" Chamberlain immediately expressed approval for the Sudetenland to break away from Czechoslovakia, and stated he would take this opinion back to Britain, strive for Cabinet approval, and consult with France. He begged Hitler repeatedly not to use force, and Hitler agreed "not to take any military action before the two met again."
This is the process the declining world hegemon must go through. They can only make those emerging powerful countries nominally abide by the order established by the hegemons through a series of retractions, compromises, and concessions. However, this order is destined to be crumbling, and no amount of effort will help in the end.
However, the People's Party did not want to be the vanguard of overthrowing Britain's status. As long as they proved Britain's weakness to the world, they could stir up the courage of the challengers, making them believe that as long as they persecuted Britain more fiercely than China, they could get more than China.
Retracting his thoughts, Chen Ke gave a point-by-point reply to this proposal seriously: "First, the land China has already occupied must belong to China. Historically, we have sufficient data to prove that China established political power on these lands first. Second, the Netherlands must treat Chinese overseas nationals and Chinese capital equally. Even if they can't talk about welcoming Chinese investment, they shouldn't make things difficult for Chinese investment. Third, we don't care if the Anglo-Japanese Alliance continues to exist or if Britain is willing to unilaterally cancel it; it has nothing to do with China. Fourth, the Strait of Malacca can be controlled by Britain, and we have no intention of meddling, but China's oil supply should not be restricted. Fifth, China has no intention of invading Britain, but the McMahon Line is completely illegal and cannot be used as any basis. We have already investigated the areas in southern Tibet that pay taxes to the Dalai Lama. The administrative rights of these areas are not under Indian administration even now. There is no dispute in these areas."
The British Minister's face was a bit uncertain. China's assertions were tougher than Britain imagined in some areas, and more peaceful than Britain expected in others. But for Britain, the areas where China was tough were all genuine barren lands. Unless Britain decided it must suppress China, these areas were all insignificant areas.
"Then is your country willing to sign a five-year Sino-British Treaty of Friendship and Peace?" The British Minister cared most about this.
"China is willing to sign peace treaties with all friendly countries. On this point, our attitude has never changed," Chen Ke answered frankly.
Sending away the British Minister, Chen Ke called the person specifically responsible for liaison with Germany. "Tell Germany that we are very likely to sign a peace treaty with Britain. Let Germany determine if they want to buy submarines. If the treaty is signed, this contract will be restricted by the treaty."
In the proposal put forward by Britain, one clause was that China must not provide any military aid to countries hostile to Britain. In terms of abiding by agreements, Chen Ke never thought there was a need for treachery. Open schemes are harder to deal with than conspiracies. If Germany didn't have strategic vision and didn't wish for the results of the cooperation conducted with China in the early stage to turn into bubbles, Chen Ke believed the Little Mustache knew how to make a decision.
China is a responsible major power. As long as Germany didn't refuse, China would definitely complete the manufacturing of those one hundred submarines capable of ocean-going combat and hand them over to Germany. This was a minimum issue of integrity.