赤色黎明 (English Translation)

— "The horizon before dawn shall be red as blood"

Chapter 123: Chaotic Battle 1

Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 123

Engels once said, "If society has a technical need, that need advances science more than ten universities." During the Great Depression, society’s demand for economic technology was unprecedentedly strong, and many theories that still hold immense influence in the 21st century were completed during this period.

The Stalin model, the Fascist model, America's Roosevelt New Deal, and even the China Model. The four major countries of the world all completed their own response methods. Research targeting these models and corresponding economic explanations emerged as the times required.

Situated on the edge of the world, China’s influence was relatively small, at least within the North Atlantic economic circle. However, this was only true for ordinary people. Limited by their social status and information channels, the collection and understanding of intelligence by ordinary people and even average scholars were subject to considerable restrictions. But among first-rate talents, the view of the "China Model" was quite different.

U.S. President Roosevelt paid great attention to the China Model, even though there were many people offering advice to the leader of the world's number one industrial power, including the famous economist Keynes.

Classical economists and neoclassical economists both favored laissez-faire economic policies, while Keynes opposed them, advocating for direct state intervention in the economy. He argued for the necessity of direct state intervention and proposed relatively specific goals; his ideas, centered on fiscal policy and monetary policy, later became the core of the entire field of macroeconomics. It could even be said that later Western macroeconomics was built upon the foundation of Keynes's "The General Theory".

However, the "China Model" led by Chen Ke was still vastly different from Keynes. As a practitioner of Marxism, the China led by Chen Ke did not take "fiscal policy and monetary policy as the core," but rather focused on developing productive forces and dismantling trade barriers, realizing an industrial system of socialized transactions. For Roosevelt, the China Model actually fit his preferences better.

Of course, Roosevelt was not a socialist, let alone a communist. Roosevelt naturally took a clear-cut stand against the complete elimination of the "system of private capital ownership." If Roosevelt dared to support opposition to private capital ownership, he would likely have long since been shot by a "mental patient." But Roosevelt absorbed a large part of the practical methods from the "China Model."

What Roosevelt didn't know was that the "China Model" implemented by Chen Ke also absorbed a considerable part of the practical methods from the "Roosevelt New Deal." It was just that the "China Model" was much earlier than the Roosevelt New Deal, so Roosevelt naturally fully borrowed the effective parts from the People's Party.

Precisely because of this, Roosevelt was quite hesitant about whether to go to war with China. Even though he was mocked by China's "Legend of Maoshan Demon Slayer," and Roosevelt's distant cousin, President Theodore Roosevelt, was ruthlessly analogized as an "Alchemist Lich," Roosevelt himself didn't really care about these things. "Legend of Maoshan Demon Slayer" was obviously something from the hand of the ruling class; the powerful "evil" forces were not evil for the sake of being evil, but followed their own path for the sake of profit. Learning that the script of "Legend of Maoshan Demon Slayer" was personally penned by Chen Ke, Roosevelt didn't even feel angry; he actually rather admired Chen Ke's talent. Wolves eat meat, dogs eat shit; being able to write a script based on interests was itself the magnanimity a ruler should have.

In reality, a Chinese leader who understands where interests lie is a very difficult existence to deal with. Roosevelt had to consider the dangers of waging war with China. From the perspective of interests, the danger of Germany was much greater than that of China. The North Atlantic economic circle was the essence of the world economy in 1939, and Germany, becoming the hegemon of Europe, posed a threat to the United States far greater than China. This could be thought through without much effort. The problem was, what after solving Germany?

A China controlling the entire Western Pacific would confront the United States across the Pacific Ocean. Even if the United States had the Philippines as an Asian base, what could that do? Surrounded by China's air and naval forces, letting the U.S. Pacific Fleet station in the Philippines was just a rhythm of delivering meat to the doorstep. Roosevelt came from a law school background and served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy in 1913. Roosevelt certainly deeply knew the difficulty of having an unprecedentedly large-scale naval battle with China in the Pacific. At the same time, Roosevelt knew very well just how difficult it would be for the United States to try to drive China back to Northeast Asia after China occupied the entire Western Pacific.

The most critical thing was that the American people did not want a war of unprecedented scale in the Far East at all. The investment in this war would be unprecedented, and the outcome was completely unpredictable. Holding a kind of egoistic anger, Roosevelt thought, if only China would actively attack the U.S. Pacific Fleet!

The problem was that China made no such move at all. It wasn't that the U.S. fleet didn't go to "buy soy sauce" (spectate/loiter). When the Chinese fleet went south, the U.S. Pacific Fleet also dispatched forces to tail them. The result was that the Chinese navy adopted an attitude of turning a blind eye to the U.S. fleet. Roosevelt never cared about fabricating lies; as a politician, fabricating lies was one of the most basic capabilities. The Philippines, the U.S.'s foothold in the Western Pacific, was won through the Spanish-American War. The Spanish-American War was originally a war built on lies.

The cruel suppression of Cuban insurgents by the Spanish army endangered the economic interests of American capitalists in the region. On February 15, 1898, the U.S. warship "Maine," sent to Cuba to protect expatriates, exploded in Havana Harbor. The United States then used this incident as an excuse to take military action against Spain on April 25.

Roosevelt knew better than anyone how the "Maine" actually exploded; give the Spaniards ten guts and they wouldn't dare do such a thing. The Americans skillfully let the "Maine" explode, and then this became the excuse.

If possible, Roosevelt very much hoped to "replicate" the Maine incident. If not for the obstruction of the Republican Party, Roosevelt would have long since implemented this plan. In the upcoming U.S. election, the Republican Party abhorred Roosevelt's New Deal, which vigorously expanded the power of the federal government, suppressed state rights, allowed the establishment of unions, and implemented old-age insurance. Therefore, the U.S. Republican Party would absolutely not allow Roosevelt to drag the United States into a world war. Once entering a wartime system, Roosevelt would inevitably gain greater power, so the Republican Party kept a close watch on any possibility that could trigger a foreign war for the United States.

The matter of the U.S. Pacific Fleet following the Chinese fleet south, under the propaganda of the Republican Party, set off a huge wave within the United States. The Republican Party accused Roosevelt of deliberately trying to trigger a war and drag the United States into an Asian war. Even if the Republican Party extremely disliked China, they still questioned in Congress, "If the U.S. fleet appears in waters where China is fighting Britain and the Netherlands, and then a shell fired by God knows who hits the U.S. fleet, will President Roosevelt immediately declare war on China?"

Everyone was a politician; who didn't know how this trick was played? The Republican Party struck first, strangling the tricks Roosevelt might adopt in the cradle. The American public, having witnessed the brutal suppression of veterans marching peacefully on Washington, certainly refused to participate in war. after the Republican Party raised the issue, the U.S. Congress discussed it several times and simply proposed a bill requiring that the U.S. Pacific Fleet must not intervene in the war between China and Britain in any form. Even if attacked, Congress would need to investigate it.

The Chinese ambassador to the United States soon received news in this regard. Within China, all units stationed in the U.S. were required to work hard to stall the United States and prevent it from participating in the Western Pacific War. In intelligence work, there were quite a few places where these things could be utilized.

In some tabloids that tried to make a living by attracting eyeballs, some "stories" soon appeared. Stories including the British Navy disguising themselves as the German Navy and the Chinese Navy to attack the U.S. fleet, attempting to trigger a Sino-U.S. or German-U.S. war, quickly became popular. Because the American people were isolated from the upper echelons, their love for "rumors" far exceeded their desire for the truth. These little stories, even if written to be ridiculously absurd in the eyes of experts, were accepted because the national level was not something the people wanted to know or could understand. As long as it made the American public feel it fit the thinking they could understand, then the American public would rather believe these stories.

"The main point of writing stories is that they must be joyfully seen and heard! They must be joyfully seen and heard! And make the people feel that they have the ability to distinguish, able to see through various lies of the upper class!" Chinese intelligence agency personnel in the U.S. made a very correct judgment on this.

So the initial versions of the stories all started with a plain narrative, pointing directly at some simple conspiracies. As the American public's appetite and attention began to focus on these aspects, the stories began to gradually upgrade. Various layers of nested conspiracies began to appear, including spies, counter-spies, and spy-within-spy conspiracy stories, which began to appear more frequently in the American cultural market.

China's intelligence warfare agencies did not have departments that directly pried into foreign secret intelligence. Chen Ke always believed that for an industrialized society, this method was not very useful. Especially for a powerful industrial country like China, as long as it didn't make mistakes itself, it could solve enemies by sheer power alone. Spies had no human rights; being executed immediately after being caught was the norm. But for personnel collecting various economic intelligence as well as cultural and social trends, they could be said to be spies, but could not be classified in the ranks of spies. For example, China collected various public economic data of the United States or other countries, and also collected and investigated a part of the economic data of the United States or other countries by itself. Such intelligence personnel, even if caught, could not be convicted of espionage. At most, they would receive the treatment of deportation.

As long as life was not in danger, one could trust the loyalty of the comrades. What's more, China could openly ask the United States or other countries for these personnel. Rescue methods and rescue channels could be said to be very numerous. Open schemes are always superior to conspiracies.

Therefore, writing articles was one of the capabilities for Chinese intelligence agencies to make a living. Third-rate and even fourth-rate tabloids had a great demand for these articles. Seeing such articles selling well, newspapers and magazines in the U.S. mainland also followed suit. Various viewpoints such as "War between China and the U.S. is a British conspiracy" and "War between Germany and the U.S. is a British conspiracy" soon became popular in the United States.

The Republican Party, having "public opinion" from the people, became even more fierce in its questioning attitude towards Roosevelt. Roosevelt, this white-haired old fox, naturally knew when to advance and retreat. He understood that dragging the United States into war with minor friction in the short term was already an unrealistic matter.

The British side naturally noticed this kind of thing. Although Roosevelt didn't say it officially, he actually had private communications with Britain many times. This president sitting in a wheelchair expressed many times that if a war broke out between Britain and Germany, the United States would not incline towards Germany. Of course, the British side also noticed that the United States had never let go on one thing, and that was that the United States would not join the Axis alliance formed by Germany and Italy. China not engaging in secret espionage work in the United States did not mean that Britain did not engage in secret espionage work in the United States.

British intelligence agencies obtained relatively reliable intelligence that the United States had formulated multiple military plans to annex Canada. In history, the United States had attacked Canada, but was pushed back by the British, who even burned down the U.S. presidential residence along the way. It was just that times had changed. If the current United States joined hands with Germany, Britain would absolutely not have a good outcome.

Even if the United States did not join hands with Germany but, like the current China, acted against Britain alone, Britain fighting against the attacks of both the United States and China at the same time would exceed Britain's endurance. In this situation, Britain could only be anxious. In order to deter the United States, Britain could only adopt a method that only a boss could implement. In order to redeem the lost face, the boss must go into battle personally to prove with strength that the boss had enough power to awe the scene.

In June 1939, British First Lord of the Admiralty Churchill, in India, commanded an "Eight-Eight" fleet, that is, a large formation composed of eight battleships and eight heavy cruisers, and began to approach the Kra region controlled by China.

Former Commander of the Kra Military Region Zhu Yao had now returned to his old profession and became the Commander of the People's Navy Indian Ocean Fleet. The Kra Military Region had become part of the Malaya Military Region. The Military Region Commander was served by Pu Guanshui, and the Military Region Political Commissar was served by Vice Chairman of the Military Commission Comrade Li Runshi.

Zhu Yao's attitude was very "conservative." Given China's pitiful hydrological data in the Indian Ocean, plus the relatively large wind and waves in the Indian Ocean, it was not very suitable for aircraft carrier operations. At Zhu Yao's suggestion, the Indian Ocean Fleet was a combat cluster with "Air, Submarine, and Fast Attack Craft" as the core. And after Zhu Yao obtained a large number of new combat vessels, the first combat plan was to seize the Andaman Islands of India, and then advance to the State of Ceylon, that is, Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka was anciently called "Lanka" (Chinese transliteration Lengqie), and Chinese ancient books called it the Lion Kingdom, or Simhala Kingdom. In the appellation of New China, Sri Lanka was mostly referred to as Ceylon or the Simhala Kingdom. Although Sri Lanka was already a British colony, China obviously did not think so.

If the State of Ceylon could be liberated, China would be able to obtain a powerful support point in the Indian Ocean. India's little bit of army was not to be feared at all, and in terms of air force, China occupied a comprehensive upper hand. With Ceylon as a base, the navy could strike the British Navy in the Indian Ocean at any time. If the British fleet in the Indian Ocean was wiped out, China could even directly restore oil trade with the Middle East oil-producing regions. After the start of the Sino-British war, oil supplies from the Middle East had been terminated.

Obviously, Churchill also recognized the situation. The canal excavation work in the Kra Isthmus region by China had not stopped at all. Not only had it not stopped, but China had also hired over 100,000 Japanese laborers from Japan to participate in the Kra Canal excavation project. Now there were over 280,000 workers laboring on the entire construction site. Calculated at one cubic meter of earth and stone per person per day, including mountain excavation works, it would take at most another year to dig through this final section of the canal. At that time, the Chinese fleet would be able to rush into the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca, the Kra Canal, and the Sunda Strait. Britain simply did not have enough troops to monitor and blockade these three waterways simultaneously. To reverse this situation, one must first seize the Kra region and threaten China's Laos Province and the newly captured Malaya region from the Thailand region.

Churchill was not a fool. As a British hardliner against Germany, he knew very well that Germany was definitely going to act against Poland. After the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Germany was equivalent to getting a pass to Poland. The reason Germany hadn't moved yet was just waiting for Britain to transport troops to India. Churchill knew very well that at the same time Britain suffered defeat in the Indian Ocean, Germany would act against Poland.

But the degree of weirdness of the country of Poland exceeded Churchill's imagination based on the news he received. Ever since Poland joined the British "Allied" camp against China, the Poles felt that with Britain backing them up, facing the eyeing Germany, Poland adopted an extremely tough treatment strategy. Not only did it deploy hundreds of thousands of troops on the Polish-German border, but Poland also formulated a military plan to actively attack Germany. Its goal was to annex "East Prussia."

Poland's domestic propaganda machine went into full swing, shouting about "recreating the glory of 1410." In 1410, the Teutonic Order and the Polish-Lithuanian Union fought a large-scale battle near Tannenberg. The Teutonic Order was defeated in this battle and lost a series of lands in Poland, eventually retaining only the piece of land of Prussia. Since then, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth embarked on the path of "Pacifying Germany and Suppressing Russia" to dominate Central Europe. It once established a vast country from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.

Churchill had read a lot of news from China. After Poland declared war on China, China wrote many articles introducing Poland. One mocking article had detailed Poland and called Poland "Ping Du Zhen Lu Da Bo Bo" (Pacify Germany Suppress Russia Big Bobo).

Because he was not a Southern Chinese, Churchill certainly didn't understand what "Big Bobo" meant. And Churchill didn't want to become any Chinese linguistics expert. What he cared about was, after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, where exactly did Poland get the courage to challenge both Germany and the Soviet Union at the same time? Was it because after joining the British Allied camp, Poland was prepared to drag Britain into the water?

Churchill hoped to strike Germany, but that didn't mean Churchill was ready to go to war with both China and Germany at the same time. Even as a hardliner, Churchill himself didn't have the courage to make such a idiotic decision.

However, things indeed developed in the worst direction. On June 16, 1939, a piece of news from Europe shocked Churchill. Polish troops crossed the Polish-German border and launched an attack on German troops. The fighting quickly entered a fierce and even white-hot stage.