赤色黎明 (English Translation)

— "The horizon before dawn shall be red as blood"

Chapter 132: Munich Conference (1)

Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 132

Before entering the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs building, US Ambassador to China John Leighton Stuart couldn't help but pause for a moment.

In the past, when he was the president of Yenching University, Stuart always held a condescending attitude as a scholar towards the incompetent officials of the Beiyang government. Now, Yenching University had long been closed, and Stuart was facing the officials of the He Rui government. Although these officials acknowledged that the United States was a powerful country, they only considered the United States a powerful country, and nothing more.

All the advantages Stuart once possessed were gone. He had to face He Rui's government officials who were cold, ruthless, and highly qualified. Stuart felt like a sheep going to deal with hungry wolves, helpless and frustrated. As a state public servant, Stuart knew he couldn't stop moving forward; he could only enter the devil's den of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, filled with cold officials.

Having seen diplomats from all the major powers in the world, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Shiguang didn't take Stuart seriously. The current United States must communicate with China on the basis of strength. Even if the US President came, he would have to follow the rules. On the contrary, because Stuart had some friends in the Chinese academic circles, Li Shiguang found it inconvenient to play some diplomatic tricks on Stuart.

Stuart came this time to convey the attitude of the US government. The US government had already summoned the Chinese ambassador to the US and expressed the US government's dissatisfaction with the "Naval Act of 1938" just passed by the Chinese Congress. China stipulated in the Naval Act of 1938 that in the next three years, China would build 16 battleships and 24 aircraft carriers.

The US government not only summoned the Chinese ambassador to the US but also summoned the Japanese ambassador to the US, expressing dissatisfaction with the Japanese Naval Act passed by the Japanese Diet. The Japanese Naval Act stipulated that Japan would build 8 battleships and 4 aircraft carriers to replace all of Japan's old warships.

Everyone was discerning; the East Asian Economic Cooperation Organization had already adopted a customs union policy. Even if East Asia could not be regarded as one country, it was at least a firm alliance. The tonnage of capital ships owned by the East Asian League was already equal to that of the United States, which was the source of US dissatisfaction.

Considering the basis of strength, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't care at all whether the United States was happy or not. After listening to Stuart convey the US attitude, Foreign Minister Li Shiguang replied: "In view of the number and tonnage of warship construction stipulated in the 'Two-Ocean Navy Act' recently passed by the US government, China has decided to build a fleet to ensure the balance of the Pacific. This is the attitude of the Chinese government."

Stuart was an undergraduate anyway and knew the basic rules of great power diplomacy. Since he couldn't make a breakthrough from the official standpoint, he tried to express his unease from a personal perspective. Before Stuart could initiate such an emotional exchange, Li Shiguang clearly told Stuart, "Ambassador Stuart, represent the views of the US government, do you?"

This was really very polite. With Stuart's level, Li Shiguang could have played him to death with any small trick. But Li Shiguang and the people in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs simply didn't do that; they just relied on these polite means to protect Stuart. After all, the US upper echelons really believed that the Chinese government thought Stuart was truly beneficial for drawing the people of China and the US closer. Since the US upper echelons believed it, China also had to express belief.

Stuart replied helplessly: "President Roosevelt hopes to send a special envoy."

"Chairman He is very busy and cannot schedule time recently," Li Shiguang replied sincerely.

Facing the cold and smart Chinese officials, Stuart was truly at his wit's end. He could only define himself as a messenger, and a person who could participate in various Chinese folk activities relying on his past connections in the Chinese folk. Stuart didn't know that for a diplomat to achieve this level was already remarkable.

The Chinese officials, considered cold and smart by Stuart, didn't lie either; He Rui was indeed very busy recently. For example, He Rui was currently meeting with a French special envoy. The French special envoy directly showed He Rui the records of recent meetings with the Soviet Union and Britain.

Given that Germany was practically preparing to solve the Sudetenland issue, French diplomats met with Molotov and asked in the name of the French government, "If Germany invades Czechoslovakia, what does the Soviet Union plan to do?"

Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov immediately stated, "We will fulfill the obligations stipulated in the 'Franco-Soviet Treaty of Mutual Assistance'. If Romania and Hungary can remain neutral, we can persuade the Romanian government to allow Soviet troops and aid to pass through Romanian territory to reach Czechoslovakia."

After reading it, He Rui didn't know how to evaluate it, and could only say in his heart that this was diplomacy full of Russian flavor.

Looking at the meeting records between France and Britain again, the French representative had already given the British side the meeting records between France and the Soviet Union before the meeting, so the French side asked very frankly, "France opposes Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland region. If it triggers a war, what is Britain's view?"

Britain used three paragraphs of very subtle diplomatic rhetoric to answer. The inner meaning of the first paragraph was that Britain believed war would not break out. The inner meaning of the second paragraph was that Britain now only wanted to ensure that Britain would not be dragged into the war. The third paragraph was relatively clear, meaning that if France was attacked, Britain would provide aid.

The French representative seized on the third paragraph and asked what kind of help Britain could provide. The British side stated that it would send 2 divisions to France within half an year and provide France with 150 aircraft.

He Rui had long been accustomed to this British-style diplomacy. It was already July 8th, and Czechoslovakia had already used the terrain to build defense lines. And it mobilized 21 divisions to guard the defense lines. As the world's 8th largest industrial power now, Czechoslovakia possessed a military industry ranked 2nd in Europe. The price Britain offered was sending 2 divisions and 150 aircraft within half a year, asking France not to go to war. This was Britain's current diplomatic style. The former big shot had fallen to such a state; it was truly pitiable and laughable.

Since he couldn't complain, He Rui put down the two diplomatic documents without saying a word. The French special envoy immediately said: "If Czechoslovakia is invaded by Germany, what will the Chinese government do?"

"The Chinese government will immediately condemn Germany's act of aggression. And ask the Czechoslovak government what kind of aid it needs, and do its utmost to meet the reasonable needs of the Czechoslovak government. If the Czechoslovak government actively requests our help, we will meet the Czechoslovak government's needs within our capabilities."

The prediction made by the French special envoy before coming to China was similar to what He Rui said now. The special envoy hurriedly prepared, what if Germany launched a military attack on France? As long as the French government made a request, the Chinese government would provide support.

Hearing such a clear answer, the French special envoy's eyes lit up, "Will the Chinese government actively attack Germany?"

He Rui felt that the French government was also anxious, with a flavor of turning to any doctor in illness. But this couldn't be said. He Rui replied: "The Chinese government opposes the racist philosophy and acts of racial oppression of the German Nazi government. But these acts do not constitute a reason for the Chinese government to declare war on the German government."

The French special envoy had already received the desired reply and took his leave. He Rui was indeed very busy. As soon as the French special envoy left, He Rui immediately picked up the report that had been interrupted by the French special envoy's arrival, "Report on the Situation of International Students from Various Colonies in China".

It was already 1938, and China had become the largest trading partner for many countries in the world, with the scale of trade with all parts of the world growing larger and larger. Naturally, the number of international students from various colonies coming to China to study also increased rapidly. Except for the colonies bordering China, the colonial students who could cross the sea to study in China were not poor people.

In addition to providing good education and training for these international students, the Chinese government also established several research institutions. For example, the Indochina Research Center, the South Pacific Islands Commerce Center, the Southeast Asian Archipelago Business Cooperation Center, the Indian Ocean Rim Region Research Center...

The actual direct leading department of these research institutions was the General Staff. The purpose of the General Staff establishing these institutions was naturally for war. So far, the most successful institution was the Vietnam Research Center. China had basically determined that after liberating Vietnam, it would be divided into 4 independent nation-states: Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Cochin, according to ethnicity.

The next most successful were Lower Burma, Bengal, and the Dravidian region in the southern part of the Indian subcontinent. These regions all had a large number of young people studying in China. Because of the large number, it had already attracted the attention of the British Indian government. There was a paragraph in the investigation report that attracted He Rui's attention, "...It was the Indian National Congress that reported to the British Governor-General. This political party pays great attention to cracking down on revolutionary forces within India..."

He Rui had his own views on the Indian National Congress. After reading the report, He Rui picked up the "China Mineral Survey Report".

"...In 1937, our country's steel production reached 44.86 million tons. If the ore trade between China and the Soviet Union halts, relying solely on domestic ore, China's steel production can reach about 64 million tons. Plus the ore provided by Korea, China's steel production can reach 76 million tons. The steel production of the East Asian Economic Cooperation Organization can reach 89 million tons, and it is estimated that China's civilian steel demand will reach 69 million tons at that time..."

The next "China Mobilization Estimate" report deduced with detailed data that due to China's rapid industrialization, a large population entered the industrial production field, leading to a birth rate far lower than predicted in 1935. It is estimated that by 1940, China's population will be about 670 million. Instead of the projected 750 million.

The combat troops mobilized by China in the war would be approximately 15 million, accounting for 2.2% of China's total population. China had no reason for total mobilization, or even a reason for mobilization. To meet war needs, China's industrial output would increase significantly, and the source of war funds could be solved by raising taxes.

Due to tax increases, the quota for national public expenditure would shrink. Since a large number of new industrial jobs would appear during the war, according to current statistical data that the fertility rate generally declines after farmers enter industrial production, even if national public expenditure is not reduced, as a large number of educated people enter the working age, they provide tax revenue for the country through labor. Because these personnel with higher education levels start working, the efficiency of using national public expenditure will increase rapidly...

This report was spearheaded by Li Runshi. Because it was supported by sufficient data, the content was very detailed and the reliability was also high.

The next report came from the Ministry of Commerce. France had basically determined that war would break out. In order to improve the level of armaments to achieve the goal of defeating Germany more easily, France began to completely eliminate old equipment and replace it with new equipment. Since the equipment of French factories had been fully used during the export boom to China in the past 10 years, it was also time for replacement, and a climax of replacing new equipment appeared in France. With the rise of machinery manufacturing stocks, the already high French stock market was pushed to a new height.

The rise in the French stock market was nothing compared to Britain and the United States. After the passage of the US Two-Ocean Navy Act, the US stock market, which had fallen by 40% from its high point in early 1937, rebounded by 20%.

The biggest increase was in Britain, because the British government's military expenditure in 1938 reached 2 billion pounds. As a major colonial power, Britain had a vast colonial market and could earn excess profits even with not-so-advanced equipment. These backward technical equipment could not meet Britain's military industry needs, so the Chamberlain government of Britain invested 4 billion pounds in 1938 to carry out a technical upgrade of Britain's mines and factories. Factories willing to purchase new equipment and adopt new technologies could get government orders, while those unwilling to invest in transformation were left to fend for themselves.

Under government policies, most vibrant British factories chose to adopt new equipment and use new technologies. Britain's population was only 40 million. 6 billion pounds was equivalent to 24 billion US dollars. If 24 billion US dollars were smashed down, averaging to 40 million British people, one person would have 600 US dollars. Even if most of this money still went into the pockets of the upper class and capitalists, and the improvement in the lives of ordinary British people was very limited, the British stock market soared like a roller coaster. It made the assets of the propertied classes skyrocket.

If one only looked at the data without knowing the reason, seeing the stock market rise and the unemployment rate fall, one would definitely think that 1938 was a good year. But that shot of chicken blood causing the current result was named war.

If one only looked at economic data, one would also feel that 1940 was a good year because in that year all industrial countries in the world achieved full employment! Because of labor shortages, there was even a situation where women were employed in large numbers.

He Rui's work was this busy; he had to read a large number of documents and formulate policy directions based on current realities. Time quickly arrived at August 3rd, and Britain and France decided to convene an international conference on the Sudetenland issue. Out of respect for the great powers, Britain and France sent notifications to China and the United States, two countries outside the region, as if distributing hero invitations. Inviting both countries to attend the conference.

When Foreign Minister Li Shiguang brought this news, he also brought another piece of news. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked the Soviet Union if it had received a formal invitation. The Soviet government clearly stated that it had not received a formal invitation.

He Rui invited Li Runshi, "Minister Li, let Chairman Li be the Chinese representative this time."

Li Runshi immediately replied: "I don't think it's very suitable, and I'm not good at doing this kind of work."

"Someone has to show their face, and this conference needs Chairman Li's logical thinking. Sacrificing Czechoslovakia's interests is releasing war. As a peace-loving country, China must absolutely not accept such a thing happening," He Rui said decisively.

Li Shiguang and Li Runshi both fell silent temporarily. Both felt that He Rui was speaking from his heart, but also knew that He Rui was acting too excessively. Finally, Li Runshi had to say: "Chairman, I'm not very suitable for this kind of work."

He Rui shook his head, "You don't need to worry about your emotional issues. As long as you go and listen to the bullshit spoken by the imperialists, you won't be able to help getting angry even if you want to."

Li Shiguang felt that He Rui's words sounded a bit unconscionable. The hard-heartedness shown by diplomatic personnel on many occasions was to maximize national interests, not because diplomatic personnel were born heartless.

As if hearing Li Shiguang's inner thoughts, He Rui turned to Li Shiguang, "Not letting diplomatic personnel come forward this time is because we want to express the degree of importance we attach to this conference. Moreover, the reaction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be understood by various countries as a diplomatic act, to seek greater benefits, rather than truly out of our country's philosophy."

Hearing this, Foreign Minister Li Shiguang felt much better. He Rui turned to Li Runshi again, "Since Britain and France have sent the hero invitations, very well, we will attend. And we suggest holding this conference in China."

Li Runshi was somewhat puzzled, "I think Britain and France have probably decided to compromise with Germany. They have likely guessed our country's position and will probably not accept meeting in China."

He Rui smiled: "For such a big matter, I think we should formally tell Japan."

Li Shiguang had already figured out the roadmap in a moment, "Chairman, I will arrange it. What if Britain and France insist on not accepting?"

He Rui turned to Li Runshi, "Chairman Li, what do you think?"

Li Runshi thought for a moment and replied: "If they insist on not accepting, we will announce that we will absolutely not accept any results they discuss in a private meeting. All consequences arising from this shall be borne by Britain and France!"