Chapter 54: Selection and Being Selected Part 10
Volume 5: Heading Toward · Chapter 54
The British Minister expressed his delight at the Beiyang government's willingness to join the Allied Powers. Right in front of Tang Shaoyi, he ordered a telegram to be sent to London, informing the British government of this good news. He then congratulated Tang Shaoyi, praising the Beiyang government for making a choice that aligned with both justice and its own interests. Tang Shaoyi also stated that the Beiyang government would fulfill the obligations of a member state of the Allied Powers to the best of its ability. Tang Shaoyi then openly began to inquire about the situation on the European battlefield and the war status worldwide.
Diplomats were all shrewd characters; the British Minister felt a burst of appreciation for Tang Shaoyi's "posturing." In reality, everyone knew perfectly well that if the People's Party issue couldn't be resolved, Beiyang itself would face the pressure of life and death. The British Minister was waiting for Tang Shaoyi to take the initiative to talk about the war between Beiyang and the People's Party, but after waiting and waiting, Tang Shaoyi showed no intention of steering the conversation in that direction. While admiring Tang Shaoyi's composure, the British Minister also felt that Tang Shaoyi was perhaps being a bit too arrogant.
The two sides engaged in a conversation where their words didn't match their hearts. The British Minister naturally boasted about how the Allied Powers had suffered heavy losses while the Entente Powers had fought bravely and annihilated countless enemies, claiming the war should end in a short time with the complete victory of the Allied Powers. Tang Shaoyi didn't show any urgency because of this, as he truly didn't know what was actually happening on the European battlefield.
Coming out of the British Legation, Tang Shaoyi felt rare sense of relaxation. In the past, visits to the British Legation were either to protest against Britain or because Britain was trying to extort something from the Manchu government or the Beiyang government; in short, they were always very painful experiences for Tang Shaoyi. Now that the two sides were talking about cooperation calmly like friends, Tang Shaoyi suddenly felt a bit excited. In Tang Shaoyi's view, this experience was an enjoyment, a victory for Chinese diplomacy, where China had won the respect of foreign countries with its own strength.
Because he was in a good mood, when he returned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tang Shaoyi walked into his office with a calm and unhurried demeanor. Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Gu Weijun was working in the office next to Tang Shaoyi's, and a group of middle-aged and young clerks were listening to Gu Weijun explain some legal issues. This was also one of Gu Weijun's main tasks recently, explaining internationally accepted laws and their characteristics to these subordinates. This knowledge could be utilized when dealing with foreign countries.
Seeing Tang Shaoyi return, Gu Weijun told everyone to go about their own business first. He entered Tang Shaoyi's office, carefully closed the door, and listened to Tang Shaoyi's experience of this trip.
After describing the British performance, Tang Shaoyi praised Gu Weijun's suggestion again, "Discussing the matter of joining the Allied Powers on its own merits seems to have had a very good effect."
Gu Weijun knew that Tang Shaoyi had lofty aspirations and a relatively noble character, hoping to achieve something significant. Therefore, even though Tang Shaoyi's words were quite far from the level of international politics, Gu Weijun did not show any negative expression. International affairs were about strength; if one couldn't prove their strength, the great powers wouldn't treat anyone as a dish on the table. Having stayed in Beiyang for a while, Gu Weijun had come to understand the habits of the current officialdom. These Beiyang bureaucrats viewed the world situation according to the habits of domestic officialdom. Domestic officialdom was about "hello, I'm good, everyone is good," and the intensity of the struggle only went as far as the opponent stepping down. Moreover, stepping down temporarily was just stepping down temporarily; the losers also had a chance to make a comeback.
It was completely different internationally. National interests were constantly colliding and competing, and friends and enemies were constantly selected based on the reality of interests. For example, even though Britain tried to form an alliance with Russia in Europe, it supported Japan in attacking Russia in the Far East. However, Russia would not completely fall out with Britain in Europe just because its interests in the Far East were damaged; European interests were fundamental to Russia.
Beiyang had undoubtedly not understood this kind of international political interest selection method that could turn clouds into rain and rain into clouds, completely disregarding human feelings and relationships, and was nakedly transactional. Compared with Beiyang, the People's Party under the leadership of Chen Ke already had such characteristics in its style of action. Taking the attitude towards Britain as an example, the People's Party had not interrupted trade with Britain up to now. After studying the People's Party's statements, Gu Weijun clearly found that the People's Party subdivided interests very precisely. The pursuit of Chinese sovereignty and the pursuit of joining the world trade system were clearly emphasized in the People's Party's statements.
In Beiyang's view, the People's Party's claim to protect the legitimate trading rights of foreign merchants was just a pretext. Gu Weijun, however, believed that both the British and he himself could see clearly that the People's Party did not want to interrupt any legitimate trade activities. It was just that the British and the People's Party had a sharp contradiction over the interest of ruling power in the Yangtze River basin. The British wanted to control the Yangtze River basin, and the People's Party also wanted to control the Yangtze River basin. Both sides had a fierce conflict around this interest.
Although this conflict had not yet been decided, Gu Weijun firmly believed that after this conflict and contradiction were completely resolved, the People's Party and the British side would still collude and cooperate due to various interests. This is the essence of international politics: there are only eternal interests, no eternal enemies.
Gu Weijun believed that Beiyang could not grasp, or even experience, this attitude of the People's Party and the British in the short term. This was a very equal relationship, "all countries are equal before strength." There was no lack of talents in Beiyang who hoped to save the country through industrialization, no lack of talents who hoped to save the country through military means, no lack of talents who hoped to save the country through education, and there was even a certain amount of talents in Beiyang who did not care much about life and death. But Beiyang simply lacked the attitude to understand equality, to understand that in this world, things had nothing to do with closeness or distance, but only with the matter itself. From the collected information, Beiyang's most powerful and dangerous enemy in China, the "People's Party," happened to adhere to this attitude of "seeking truth from facts."
After all, Tang Shaoyi was a talent; he did not lose his composure no matter how happy he was. After happily recounting this experience, Tang Shaoyi asked, "Shao-chuan, do you have any suggestions for the subsequent negotiations?"
"Don't reveal your cards," Gu Weijun answered cleanly and neatly. The advantage Beiyang currently possessed was not the kind of advantage the People's Party had. At present, the British probably believed that as long as the People's Party made a move, the People's Party had no opponent in Asia in land warfare outside the coverage of naval guns. Beiyang obviously did not have such power. At least the British obviously did not believe that Beiyang possessed such power. Then at this stage, they had to constantly give the British confidence and constantly increase common interest points with the British. Only in this way would the British support Beiyang because of themselves.
"That is to say, we should not have direct positive military conflicts with the People's Party in the near future?" Tang Shaoyi grasped the key point.
"The People's Party is currently targeting the south, especially the Yangtze River basin. At this stage, we had better strengthen the integration of the north. Before the final decisive battle breaks out, try to get Britain to support us. Father-in-law, if the People's Party disregards everything and mobilizes its forces to fight a decisive battle with us right now, do you think we can win?" Gu Weijun asked.
Tang Shaoyi fell silent. This question was difficult to answer, and also very easy to answer. The difference lay in whether one stood on the standpoint of "saving face" or "facing reality." The People's Party was currently gathering its elites to go north to attack Hebei, and the possibility of the Beiyang Army winning was not great. The difference might be how long the Beiyang Army could resist. However, the Beiyang Army currently had a strength of more than 1.2 million, and with Wu Peifu's new victory, Tang Shaoyi felt that time was needed to improve the Beiyang Army's strength and combat effectiveness.
"Father-in-law, if our army can expand to 2 million and the training level can reach the level of General Wu Peifu's subordinates, not only will we feel that we have a good chance of winning, but the British will also feel that we have a good chance of winning. Therefore, before the decisive battle is ready, our army cannot suffer any blows of failure. To put it more clearly, before the British finally support us, our army cannot have any failures." Gu Weijun gave the answer.
Tang Shaoyi was silent for a while, "Shao-chuan, why does the People's Party currently refuse to show weakness to the British, and also not fear any failure? If they were willing to show weakness to the British, I'm afraid the British would support the People's Party."
Gu Weijun replied, "Looking at the People's Party's current practices, they firmly believe that they can sweep away all opposing forces, including the British. Showing weakness at this time is meaningless."
Hearing Gu Weijun's explanation, Tang Shaoyi asked hesitantly, "Then should we explain this matter to the British?"
Gu Weijun shook his head, "Father-in-law, I don't think that's necessary. With the intelligence of the British, they can definitely see this clearly. The reason why Britain is indecisive is firstly because they still have illusions about the People's Party, or Britain is currently indecisive. After all, the People's Party has clearly stated that it will neither join the British side nor the German side. The contradiction between the People's Party and Britain is merely a contradiction between the People's Party and the British. Since this is the case, the British feel that dragging this contradiction until after the end of the European war is not bad either. At that time, the British can deal with the People's Party calmly."
Tang Shaoyi associated this with the meeting with the British Minister, where the British expressed with a confident attitude that the European war would inevitably end with a British victory. Regardless of what they said, Tang Shaoyi was truly afraid of the British in his heart. Because of this preconceived attitude, Tang Shaoyi had felt somewhat anxious at the time. After all, this "confident" attitude from the British side meant that the British might turn to support Japan. If such a situation occurred, Beiyang's huge cost for the "Rizhao Victory" would become meaningless. Listening to Gu Weijun's analysis, Tang Shaoyi felt that the British attitude was a bit "fake." The feeling of bluffing was very obvious.
To actually commit such a low-level error, the feeling of shame made Tang Shaoyi feel his face burning a little. After only a moment of silence, Tang Shaoyi asked, "Shao-chuan, do you think that if the British go to war with the People's Party now, could it be that the British cannot win against the People's Party?"
When asking this question, Tang Shaoyi's voice was very low, and he even felt somewhat ashamed. Gu Weijun didn't know how to answer this question for a moment. After a pause, Gu Weijun also replied in a low voice, "The British know this best."
These two Beiyang diplomats both understood a principle: what could not be obtained on the battlefield no matter what, was even more impossible to obtain at the negotiation table. No matter how cold the People's Party was to the British, the People's Party always had the chance to turn and defect to the British. But no matter how hard Beiyang tried, they could only stick to the British to the death. Once abandoned by the British, they would have no future to speak of. This fact was inevitably too cruel, making both Beiyang diplomats feel unable to accept it.
Just as the two Beiyang diplomats considered, the British side was no longer anxious now. Even if the People's Party remained "stubborn," with Japan's anxiety and Beiyang clearly stating it would join the Allied Powers, using the shit-stirring stick experience accumulated by Britain over several hundred years, they had determined that the situation in Asia would return to Britain's customary control track. Both Beiyang and the Japanese were bowing and scraping to compete for British support. The People's Party's firm hostile attitude guaranteed a clear division between enemy and friend. The only fly in the ointment was that the People's Party's strength was perhaps a bit excessive.
Of course, if Britain, Beiyang, and Japan joined hands and were still not the People's Party's opponent, that would also be a not bad thing. The British could follow their long-accumulated methods, decisively sell out Beiyang, turn to support the People's Party, and win over Japan. There were many ways to maintain balance; direct confrontation was merely one method of balancing.
Since there was a clear framework, the British naturally didn't need to worry anymore. The People's Party was certainly shouting about expelling British influence, but their recent performance was not as radical as their shouting. Business between the two sides continued as usual, and even when Britain could not deliver the two steel production lines ordered by the People's Party due to the war, the People's Party expressed serious understanding. At least the deposit did not need to be refunded for the time being.
Including not long ago, when the British asked the People's Party again if they were willing to join the Allied Powers group. The People's Party stated their attitude clearly, "We will not join the European war, so we will not join Britain, and even less will we join Germany."
As for the British inquiry about the contradiction between the two sides, the People's Party also answered very seriously, "China must take back all sovereignty; this is the entire key to the contradiction. If Britain is willing to cooperate in this regard, the People's Party can reach a closer alliance relationship with Britain."
The British would not agree to peacefully hand over their interests in China even if they died, but this did not mean that Britain would refuse to "acknowledge the status quo" when the situation was unfavorable. This was Britain's method of survival. No matter how passive the situation was, no matter how unbearable the situation was to read, the British would face reality and strive for Britain's maximum interests. In a certain sense, Britain was also a practitioner of "seeking truth from facts."
Since "misunderstandings and misinterpretations" no longer existed between the two sides, the British side decided that the immediate goal was to do their utmost to defeat the People's Party. The British Minister felt at ease; this was an equal enemy relationship. The British side also firmly believed that the People's Party was also doing its utmost to regain China's sovereignty at this time. The struggle between the two sides was not based on personal resentment, but merely a struggle for interests. That was all.