Chapter 55: Title: Selection and Being Selected Part 11
Volume 5: Heading Toward · Chapter 55
"We will definitely protect the interests of the Entente Powers," the British Minister to China vowed to the French Minister to China. After finishing his pledge, the British Minister added, "Please, have some tea."
"When we went to question the People's Party about what they intend to do, they actually told us that the People's Party's march into Guangxi is China's internal affair and France has no right to interfere. I have never seen such unreasonable Chinese people." The French Minister looked ready to roar, but roaring in the British Legation would be too detrimental to a diplomat's dignity. So although the French Minister's voice was loud, it was still within the bounds of proving his sanity.
Since the British Minister had already guaranteed the interests of the Entente, he naturally wasn't willing to say much more. Listening to the French Minister's endless rambling like Xianglin Sao, the core message was that Britain must step forward to resolve the crisis France was facing. The British Minister felt extremely impatient inside. France's seizure of Annam had not relied solely on their own military force. The French army had been disastrously defeated at Zhennanguan, causing the French government to fall. It was with British "help" that the Manchu Qing were forced to agree to French control over Annam. On this point, Britain looked down on France quite a bit.
The French Minister continued excitedly, "The People's Party must withdraw from Guangxi and acknowledge that Guangxi is France's sphere of influence." As he spoke, the French Minister stared burningly at the British Minister. The French Minister naturally didn't know the mocking thoughts in the British Minister's heart, but it must be stated that even if he knew, he would pretend not to. Compared to the threat France was facing, such mockery was not worth mentioning.
The British Minister listened seriously, but his internal fluctuations were completely different from his calm exterior. The British Minister was constantly clicking his tongue in his heart at how completely unexpected the People's Party's actions were.
After the defeat at Zhennanguan, the French had unexpectedly obtained Annam. But the French were not satisfied with just Annam. The British had turned the Yangtze River valley into their sphere of influence, and the French also attempted to turn Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou into their sphere of influence. Originally, the People's Party's base areas did not border Guangxi, Yunnan, or Guizhou, so the French were not enthusiastic about the conflict between the People's Party and the British. But the People's Party did not stop after seizing Hunan. The Hunan government's armed forces were chased by the People's Party all the way into Guangxi, and the People's Party followed these defeated troops and conquered Guangxi in one stroke. After controlling Hunan, the gateway to Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou was thrown open to the People's Party. France suddenly discovered that the greedy tongue it had extended towards these three Chinese provinces had met directly with the bayonets of the People's Party.
Chen Ke could not reveal the outcome of World War I to anyone, but he knew very well that France had sent 5 million young men to the battlefield to resist the Germans, and they were basically consumed in trench warfare. Even though France surrendered in World War II to preserve its population's vitality, China still didn't take the French seriously. In the Korean War, China sent a Marshal to command the Volunteer Army. Later, during the resistance against France to aid Vietnam, China didn't even send troops, only dispatching a consultant group led by General Chen Geng to Vietnam. Commanding the Vietnamese army was enough to resolve the French army. The strategy Chen Ke established this time was similar: dispatch a consultant group and let the "Annam Liberation Army," with the Workers' and Peasants' Revolutionary Army as the main body, be responsible for liberating Annam. Although France's intense reaction had no realistic basis, it could not be said to be an incorrect judgment.
The People's Party's army standing directly opposite France was a huge change in the situation that the British Minister found difficult to deal with. His strategic judgment had always been that the People's Party would first choose to have a decisive showdown with the Beiyang forces before making other moves. And the fact that People's Party Chairman Chen Ke's Mobile Central Committee was recently stationed in Zhengzhou undoubtedly reinforced this view of the British Minister. The People's Party was about to have a final showdown with Beiyang. Based on such strategic judgment, the British Minister had formulated his own series of strategies.
A just cause attracts much support, an unjust one finds little. Even if the British Legation didn't know exactly how to read or write this Chinese saying, they fully understood the principle and knew how to implement it. They used a "stalling" method with Yuan Shikai's Beiyang. Since Beiyang already had the intention to join the Entente, they inevitably had requests of Britain. Dangle the carrot of "joining the Entente" in front of the Beiyang government, and the Beiyang donkey would have to obediently walk down the path.
But Beiyang neither sent people continuously to inquire with Britain nor sought information through intermediaries from the British Minister. It was as if nothing had happened; Beiyang completely restrained its actions and did not take any radical response. Britain decided to leave Beiyang out to dry for a while. Even if the British didn't act, the People's Party would press Beiyang step by step. But after nearly a month, the British were disappointed. The People's Party seemed as if nothing had happened; they neither provoked nor showed weakness in the north. Instead, in the south, the People's Party's military offensive directly dragged the French into the water. The drastic change in the situation made the British Minister feel the need to rethink his plan. He spoke some diplomatic clichés and finally managed to send the French Minister away.
Regarding the recent changes in the situation, everyone in the British Legation felt it was very thorny. Britain was an island nation after all and did not directly border Germany. France bordered Germany and was a sworn enemy, putting all its strength into the war with Germany. Britain had to support France in fighting the Germans on the front line.
"Sir Humphrey, based on your observations, how many troops can the People's Party actually commit to war?" The British Legation staff couldn't help but ask this question again. Beiyang's more than one million troops were distributed in Northeast China, Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and southern provinces like Fujian and Zhejiang. From a strategic perspective, the Beiyang army could launch a massive attack on the People's Party along a front of thousands of kilometers.
So besides the 600,000 troops of the People's Party that were already confirmed, the British side really wanted to determine the final number of People's Party troops. For example, after capturing Hunan and continuing into Guangxi this time, they had to use at least over 100,000 troops. What kind of gaps would the People's Party's troop movements create in their strategic deployment?
Sir Humphrey also found it difficult to answer this. The People's Party's army always gave him the impression of being inexhaustible. Whenever troops were needed, a massive number of People's Party soldiers could always be assembled. After pondering for a moment, Sir Humphrey said based on intelligence collected by Britain and his own deductions, "I estimate at most one million. If it exceeds this number, the People's Party's weapons and equipment cannot be satisfied." This was also a quite reasonable deduction. If the steel production equipment imported by the People's Party ran at half load, it could produce about 950,000 tons of steel a year. The British Legation believed the People's Party's technical level was at most at this level. After deducting the steel the People's Party put into railway construction, arming a million-strong army was the limit.
Continuing to calculate based on other intelligence, the number of troops that the various Chinese factions standing opposed to the People's Party could scrape together was probably between 2.8 million and 3.2 million. If Beiyang could complete its military plan to expand the army to 2.4 million, then this figure could reach about 3.6 million. At least in terms of military strength, 3.6 million against 1 million, the odds of victory were undoubtedly on the side of the 3.6 million.
"If it really doesn't work, we can also let Japan send troops," the British Minister proposed this idea.
Regarding Japan, the British Asia responsibility sector only demanded that Japan honor its commitment to the Entente. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance was a military treaty and did not involve economics. By 1914, Japan still owed the British government several hundred million pounds, and the amounts owed to other banks and in public bonds were equally huge. Unless Japan abandoned the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and joined the German side at this time, these debts were a dog chain around Japan's neck. No matter what Japan's mood was, they had to follow Britain's pace.
After compiling all the data, the British Legation in China, which controlled East Asia, roughly decided to implement their plan. Just as they were discussing, the Legation received a telegram from Britain. With the undersea cable, information transmission from Britain to China was much smoother. The instructions received by the British Minister to China on November 1, 1914, from home could be summarized in three points.
1. Do not use British naval forces in the Far East to block Sino-US trade.
2. Agree to the Chinese Government (Beiyang Government) joining the Entente.
3. Stabilize the Asian situation as soon as possible and increase the scale of British procurement in Asia.
The British Legation was quite opposed to these three orders. Even the second order, which was the most acceptable—agreeing to the Chinese Government joining the Entente—they felt the British domestic handling method was too simple and crude. If they conducted subtle negotiations and fully utilized the current situation, they could completely use the contradictions between Beiyang and Japan to obtain more benefits. But the British domestic stance was completely "better to avoid trouble." This ran completely counter to the British "shit-stirring stick" diplomatic style.
The officials of the Legation could also roughly guess the thoughts at home. In this era, there were only three independent countries in Asia: China, Japan, and Siam. All three countries were gathered in such a ghostly place as the Far East, with complex contradictions, barbaric and backward. Rather than exploiting the contradictions, it was better to completely settle the situation. After all, Britain hadn't expected the war in Europe to be far more difficult than imagined. Quickly pulling the Far Eastern countries onto the Entente's war chariot could also reduce Russia's worries in the rear. Moreover, the British domestic feeling towards the People's Party was not bad. As Britain's largest trading partner in the Far East, the profits from the Far East were not insignificant to Britain.
As for the People's Party shouting about recovering Chinese sovereignty, since the Boer War, Britain had been undergoing a worldwide retraction of power. What Britain considered was a stable Far East, a Far East beneficial to the British imperial structure. It would be best to turn China into a colony, but even if China recovered all sovereignty, as long as this country was sincerely willing to continuously expand trade with Britain and accept Britain's dominant position in the Far East, Britain could accept the existence of such a China.
The Boer War had emptied the British Empire's treasury, and now was not the era to care about face. Facing Wilhelm II's ambitious challenge, if Britain lost this war, it would lose everything. At that time, let alone the Far East, Britain would completely lose control over Europe. Therefore, Britain was unwilling to deploy a single soldier in the Far East. Facing the decline of the British Empire, the officials of the British Legation in China sighed. If it were before, wherever there was chaos in the world, there would be the shadow of the British shit-stirring stick. Even if some regions were not in chaos, the British shit-stirring stick would insert itself to stir things up for its own benefit. Compared to the currently extremely nervous British domestic government, those good times were incredibly nostalgic.
In this regard, the British Legation had to admit that those young men in their twenties and thirties in the People's Party really had enough patience. In the matter of foreign trade, they could really keep their cool. The People's Party not only did not hinder foreign trade in any way but instead continuously honored the contents of the quota trade agreement.
In 1913, before the outbreak of the war, the People's Party controlled areas completed the trade agreement, reaching a total trade volume of 70 million pounds with Britain. What satisfied the British side most was that the People's Party completely insisted on trade balance. Earn as much as you spend. Meticulous and rigorous in attitude. What Britain wanted domestically was the continuous expansion of the Asian trade quota. Controlling Asian shipping rights and financial channels, Britain could already earn huge profits through trade itself. The balanced trade with the People's Party made the Parliament very satisfied. From the data, the People's Party had no hostility towards Britain. As for shouting a few times about recovering sovereignty, from the Qing government to the Beiyang government, from the emperor down to the common people, everyone in China had shouted this. The People's Party's shouting didn't seem any different from others.
Compared to the People's Party's actions prioritizing trade, the Beiyang government's progress was slow, and bilateral trade had not exceeded 10 million pounds to date. Moreover, the Beiyang government had borrowed a large sum of money for military expansion. The British government was also worried about the Beiyang government's repayment ability.
The British Legation had never heard of "no investigation, no right to speak." If they had heard this saying, they would inevitably shout it loudly to curse the British government ten thousand miles away. It was just that the status of the British Legation in China was not high. While they could speak loudly to Japan and the Beiyang government, they could not change domestic policy. Unless the British Legation in China could effectively change the current Far Eastern situation, and this change had to be extremely beneficial to British interests. Otherwise, they would also face ruthless dismissal and investigation.
The British Legation in China, which originally thought it could sit back and relax, playing the various Far Eastern forces in the palm of its hand, was also helpless. After discussion, everyone reached a conclusion: under no circumstances could the Chinese situation be allowed to develop freely. Moreover, the current Chinese situation had fully entered a civil war mode. On the surface, it was just some simple military conflicts, but once the People's Party completed its civil war preparations, there would not be the slightest pause.
After determining the strategy of "giving it a go within the scope of authority," the British Legation immediately began to operate. First, they informed the Beiyang government that Britain agreed to the Beiyang government representing China to join the Entente. Before Yuan Shikai could be happy, the British Minister told Yuan Shikai that as a member of the Entente, the Beiyang government needed to provide troops to the Entente. According to the current scale of the Beiyang Army, it would need to provide about 500,000 troops for the various fronts of the Entente.
Yuan Shikai was scared by this number. If 500,000 troops were immediately pulled out to fight abroad, Beiyang would have no ability to resist after the People's Party marched north.
Looking at Yuan Shikai, whose oily fat face trembled slightly after hearing the translation's narration, Sir Humphrey, acting as the representative, showed no change in his expression. But he was quite happy inside; he had to bluff this Beiyang leader first. But Yuan Shikai's loss of composure did not last too long. He quickly said, "Everyone is a bit tired. Let's suspend our meeting for a moment."
As a guest, Sir Humphrey could not forcibly criticize Yuan Shikai's actions. Yuan Shikai proposed a temporary recess, so Sir Humphrey could only agree to a temporary recess. "If it were before, Yuan Shikai wouldn't dare to do this," Sir Humphrey thought regretfully in the rest room.
"Shaochuan, you also heard Britain's request. What should we do next?" Yuan Shikai asked Gu Weijun.
Gu Weijun was not scared by Sir Humphrey's words at all. "President, since the British have expressed agreement to our joining the Entente, there are nothing more than two results. First, they are not sincere, so they ask for a sky-high price to force us to disagree. Second, they are ready to compromise in exchange for our support. And the request to dispatch 500,000 troops, in my opinion, is not a sky-high price at all. Moreover, the army is in our hands. Britain asks us to dispatch 500,000 men; can they take away a single soldier from us?"
Yuan Shikai simply lacked experience in negotiating with such powerful countries as Britain. Hearing Gu Weijun's explanation, he couldn't help but sneeze a cold laugh. This didn't mean he was mocking Gu Weijun. As a man who rose through the military, not being able to beat foreigners was one thing, but without Yuan Shikai's consent, let alone 500,000 troops, Yuan Shikai would absolutely not let Britain take away a single person from the Beiyang Army.
With a line of thought, Yuan Shikai's mind immediately cleared up a lot. "Shaochuan, then will the British accept our conditions?"
Gu Weijun had spent a lot of effort drafting a document on the political rewards Beiyang should receive after joining the Entente. When it was just presented to Yuan Shikai, Yuan Shikai flipped through it and put it down gently without a word. Beiyang's conditions were simple: abolish concessions, recover sovereignty. Furthermore, the Boxer Indemnity would not be paid during the war, and after defeating Germany, the Boxer Indemnity would be formally cancelled. These were the shackles foreigners put around the Chinese government's neck and were Yuan Shikai's sore point. He simply didn't believe that these could be easily cancelled through treaty agreements just by joining the Entente.
But hearing Sir Humphrey's words today, and then listening to Gu Weijun's analysis, Yuan Shikai began to feel that these conditions might not be impossible to achieve.
Before attending this meeting, Gu Weijun's father-in-law, Tang Shaoyi, had repeatedly exhorted him not to be the slightest bit arrogant. Hearing Yuan Shikai's question, Gu Weijun replied, "President, although these things have to go through a series of negotiations. But the worse the British situation is, the faster they will agree." This answer was already quite implicit. Gu Weijun couldn't bluntly say that as long as they stalled, the British would definitely agree.
"Then we will agree to the British conditions first, but present our conditions to the British first." Yuan Shikai made the final decision. Thinking of the arduous nature of the negotiations, Yuan Shikai sighed in his heart, "It is not easy for me to serve the country and the people."