Chapter 57: Selection and Being Selected (13)
Volume 5: Heading Toward · Chapter 57
"Takahashi-kun, let's go for a drink tonight," Saionji Kinmochi said to Takahashi Korekiyo after the cabinet meeting broke up in unhappiness. In recent years, Japanese politics had been turbulent, and as the head of the Seiyukai, Saionji Kinmochi had been unable to form a cabinet this time. The Seiyukai had already decided to fully recommend Takahashi Korekiyo for Prime Minister.
"Saionji-kun, I would be honored to accept," Takahashi Korekiyo replied. What he needed most was the support of the heavyweights, so he naturally couldn't refuse.
In November, the weather in Japan was already quite cold. The two took a car to a restaurant in Ginza called Kikuwakamaru. Saionji Kinmochi was a regular here, and the owner respectfully opened the door for them, welcoming the two distinguished guests into a private room. Going to a restaurant in Ginza to drink and talk was already a common practice for Japanese politicians. The entire room was decorated in a Chinese style, without tatami mats, but furnished with tables, chairs, and soft couches. Outside the window were a pond and cherry blossom trees; it was indeed a good place for conversation.
Seeing Takahashi Korekiyo looking preoccupied and silent, Saionji Kinmochi smiled and asked, "What is Takahashi-kun thinking about?"
"The streets are becoming more and more deserted," Takahashi Korekiyo sighed.
"It seems Takahashi-kun is determined to prioritize the economy," Saionji Kinmochi replied. He didn't sit at the table but lay comfortably on a soft couch. Sitting formally for a whole day at the cabinet meeting was quite physically draining and uncomfortable. Being able to lie down and rest for a while was a kind of enjoyment.
Hearing that Saionji Kinmochi completely understood his plan, Takahashi Korekiyo simply relaxed and leaned back on another soft couch. "Saionji-kun, since the military has already brought things to this point, Japan's only chance to recover its vitality is to seize the opportunity of the current European war. To be frank, the People's Party has reached such a state with Britain, yet they still refuse to destroy trade between the two sides. They are also preparing to make a profit from the European war. We want to strike at the People's Party, but we cannot shake their trade with foreign countries. In that case, we might as well focus on solving our immediate economic problems. Once Japan's strength recovers, we can still compete with the People's Party."
Saionji Kinmochi only smiled at such a statement. Takahashi Korekiyo clearly saw Saionji's objection, so he sat up from the couch. "Saionji-kun, please speak frankly."
Saionji felt his fatigue slowly disappearing. He liked this shop and this room precisely because he liked this soft couch. He had tried a similar layout at home but clearly failed to achieve the same feeling, which left him somewhat regretful. Not to mention the water pipe and coffee provided by the shop, which were a great enjoyment. Hearing Takahashi Korekiyo's question amidst this comfort, Saionji couldn't help but feel a bit more regretful in his heart. As a disciple of Ito Hirobumi, a political heavyweight in Japan, and one of the true masters of Japan alongside Yamagata Aritomo's disciple Katsura Taro, Saionji liked Takahashi Korekiyo very much. There were few people in the entire Japanese cabinet who dared to sit on a couch with him like this. However, Takahashi Korekiyo was too focused on domestic issues when considering problems, and was not sensitive enough to changes in the world situation or the changes and attitudes of other forces in Japan. This had to be said to be Takahashi Korekiyo's fatal flaw.
"Takahashi-kun, according to your ideas, Japan will be fundamentally unable to interfere in Chinese affairs for the next three or four years. After Japan survives the current difficulties, what do you think the situation in China will look like?" Saionji Kinmochi asked.
"If we don't have the strength to interfere, there is no point in considering what China will look like," Takahashi Korekiyo had his own view on this.
Saionji Kinmochi's voice was not loud; he didn't want his sense of comfort to vanish so quickly. "According to your plan, Japan will be able to recover its strength in four years. But by then, the People's Party will control China, and Japan will face a powerful and unified China. At that time, will Japan have any other choice but to be excluded from China? So where exactly does Japan's future lie?"
"Saionji-kun, do you also insist on conquering China?" Takahashi Korekiyo asked. With the rise of Japan's strength in recent years, the argument for conquering China had never lacked supporters in Japan. Saionji Kinmochi's teacher, Ito Hirobumi, could also be said to be one of the supporters. In Takahashi Korekiyo's economic plan, Japan absolutely could not continue to invest in military operations in the near future.
As a politician, Saionji Kinmochi was not a short-sighted man. "To conquer China, we must rely on internal changes within China. The rise of the People's Party makes us face a strong opponent, and we cannot fail to consider this factor. Takahashi-kun understands economics, and I am at ease with Takahashi-kun controlling Japan's situation for the next few years. But after Takahashi-kun leads Japan through these difficult years, how should Japan proceed? Focusing on immediate matters is certainly important, but in any case, we cannot ignore the future."
"Then what exactly is Saionji-kun worried about?" Takahashi Korekiyo knew that he was indeed inferior to Saionji Kinmochi in politics, so he asked directly.
Saionji Kinmochi had recovered from his initial fatigue. He stood up from the soft couch and invited Takahashi Korekiyo to sit at the table with him. "There are quite a few Japanese in the People's Party. We have received some information that the People's Party believes it is necessary to overthrow the current regime in Japan and establish a socialist regime. Takahashi-kun, struggles between nations are just like this. Nothing may happen right now, but when things do happen, you will find that many things were determined long ago. If after solving the current problems, we find that we have to face an even worse situation, do you think this is the attitude of truly solving problems?"
Takahashi Korekiyo was not moved by Saionji Kinmochi's attitude at all. "If we can't even solve the current problems, how can we have the ability to compete for the future situation? The People's Party will be fundamentally unable to contend with the Japanese Navy within the visible ten years. In ten years, the war in Europe will be completely over. At that time, if Britain and Japan continue to join hands to control the Asian situation, Japan will still be able to dominate the situation. But the result of forcing a war now is losing the great opportunity right before our eyes. Even if we bomb Qingdao to the ground, what then? Are we going to send a few more divisions into China to fight?"
Saionji Kinmochi supported the Navy, and didn't mind too much hearing Takahashi Korekiyo directly criticize the Japanese Army's defeat. If it were the Army's representative, Katsura Taro, he would probably be furious by now. After the defeat in Shandong this time, no matter how the Japanese Army shirked responsibility, they had at least summarized it seriously. A division-scale Japanese force rashly entering the inland of China controlled by the People's Party would only result in total annihilation. This was also the reason why Saionji Kinmochi was no longer afraid of Katsura Taro. If they really did as Katsura Taro shouted, sending twelve divisions into China to fight the People's Party, as long as Katsura Taro was appointed as commander-in-chief, Katsura Taro would immediately refuse.
However, this did not mean that Saionji Kinmochi could accept standing by with folded arms when the situation in China changed drastically in the future. Takahashi Korekiyo was one of Japan's rare economists, but this did not mean that Saionji Kinmochi had to support Takahashi Korekiyo. However, Takahashi Korekiyo's current performance was still relatively satisfactory to Saionji Kinmochi. "Takahashi-kun, if you become Prime Minister, I hope you will definitely strengthen the Navy. The lifeline of the Great Japanese Empire is the Navy. As you just said, only by suppressing China through the Navy can we establish our advantage."
"Saionji-kun, I am very clear on this point. I believe that repairing naval vessels and continuing to complete the warships already under construction should be placed in the primary position," Takahashi Korekiyo replied. Even if he wasn't a pro-war advocate, Takahashi Korekiyo supported a strong naval force. Without a navy, there would be no reliable commerce; Takahashi Korekiyo was very clear on this point.
After the two sides reached a consensus, they detailed the scope and key points of cooperation at the wine table. The position of the Japanese military in politics was so important that a Prime Minister had to support either the Navy or the Army; in short, they had to lean to one side. Even in the World War II era, Japan could not get rid of this ridiculous problem. Takahashi Korekiyo naturally could not be exempt from this custom. In his heart, he actually believed that the urgent task was to get the Japanese economy up and running no matter what, so he had to choose the more civilized Navy as his backer.
Japan established a new cabinet with Prime Minister Takahashi Korekiyo on January 4, 1915, and immediately expressed its attitude of "respecting Britain's position in Asia" to Britain. Japan finally willing to obediently obey orders made the British side quite satisfied. Negotiations for Britain and Beiyang to join the Entente Powers were also progressing very well.
Britain naturally would not go into battle shirtless. Japan owed Britain a mountain of debt, which would be paid off with physical goods, including weapons. The Beiyang clique had to guarantee that war preparations would be completed before July 1915, and the war would start no later than September 1915. After eliminating the People's Party, Beiyang needed to fulfill its promise to Britain and dispatch 800,000 troops to the Entente front. In return, Britain would agree to Beiyang recovering sovereign rights and abolishing concessions. At the same time, the Boxer Indemnity owed by Beiyang to Britain and France would be waived. As for Beiyang's debts to the Central Powers, they could naturally also be waived.
Of course, Beiyang had to acknowledge the debts owed to Japan in the Boxer Indemnity; the British would not do something foolish like offending Japan for no reason. At the same time, Britain still held a considerable position in Beiyang's customs. While abolishing the concessions, Beiyang also needed to establish a brand-new Beiyang judicial system under British guidance, especially "Criminal Law," "Civil Law," "Commercial Law," and so on.
On January 26, 1915, the British representative, the Japanese representative, and the Beiyang representative Gu Weijun and others determined the rights and obligations of all parties in the form of the "Far East War Memorandum." The various forces in the Far East, with the People's Party as their enemy, finally temporarily straightened out their relationships.
Yuan Shikai was very satisfied with this because both the British and Japanese representatives explicitly stated, "After eliminating the People's Party, we will absolutely not interfere with China's choice of what system to adopt, and will unconditionally support the polity and system chosen by Yuan Shikai." This guarantee, determined in the form of a document, allowed Yuan Shikai to implement his grand plans after the war. Stabbing the Manchu Qing in the back could not be spoken of as Yuan Shikai's glory, and was even evidence of Yuan Shikai's "double-dealing." But these would all be in the past; the achievement of "unifying the world" was enough to support Yuan Shikai in proclaiming himself emperor. Ascending to the supreme position and adding a surname Yuan to the Chinese imperial genealogy, how great that would be!
Yuan Shikai was very satisfied with Gu Weijun, who had put great effort into this matter. After the "Far East War Memorandum" was signed, Yuan Shikai specifically invited Gu Weijun to dinner. Those who harbored ill intentions towards Gu Weijun were not invited to the banquet at all; only a few core figures of Beiyang and Gu Weijun's father-in-law, Tang Shaoyi, attended this banquet. From the very beginning of the banquet, Yuan Shikai was full of praise for Gu Weijun, setting the tone for the entire banquet.
With Yuan Shikai starting it off, coupled with the diplomatic ability displayed by Gu Weijun, Xu Shichang, Duan Qirui, Wang Shizhen, and other loyal ministers of Beiyang were also full of praise. Once they could abolish the concessions, restore sovereign rights, and waive the Boxer Indemnity, this would completely determine Beiyang's political status. Decades of humiliation would be washed away in one morning, and no one could deny Beiyang's achievements in safeguarding national sovereignty. As for the price of these conditions being the elimination of the People's Party, in the current situation, the whole country was opposing the People's Party. Crushing the People's Party would simply not let Beiyang bear the charge of "colluding with foreign countries." Both face and lining were preserved, and both tangible benefits and reputation were satisfied; such a situation was unattainable in the past.
Gu Weijun was a young man, and being so praised by so many high-ranking elders was something that had never happened before. Not to mention that he himself indeed knew that he had completed a major diplomatic victory, a victory that was absolutely unprecedented. Xu Shichang even praised, "At present, our Republic of China is also a country equal to Britain and Japan. After the victory, we will certainly be able to maintain China's dominant position in Asia." Listening to Xu Shichang's meaning, Japan was not even worth mentioning in Xu Shichang's words at this moment.
People kept praising Tang Shaoyi for finding a good son-in-law. Tang Shaoyi originally hadn't expected his son-in-law Gu Weijun to be able to accomplish such a big thing either. In his pleasant surprise, he drained every cup and smiled from ear to ear.
Gu Weijun, however, did not lose his humility, because he had actually talked deeply with his father-in-law Tang Shaoyi about this matter. No matter how wonderful the future of the treaty was, it was all in the future. To reach that wonderful future, they had to cross the realistic obstacle of the People's Party. The treaty with Britain and Japan came at the cost of Beiyang completely destroying the People's Party. Although Gu Weijun hadn't had many dealings with Chen Ke, just from that time he went to Wuhan to visit Chen Ke, Gu Weijun could be sure that Chen Ke was definitely not a person who would give up his position, nor was he a person who would choose to retreat in the face of the current situation.
In fact, the current situation was less Beiyang's credit and more the People's Party's credit. Without the People's Party turning Britain, Japan, and Beiyang all into enemies and skillfully striking at them, these three parties could not have reached an agreement so smoothly. If the People's Party didn't have such a design, then the People's Party's actions were enough to prove the People's Party's foolhardy bravery. If this was a carefully designed development of the situation by the People's Party, then the People's Party's maneuvers could only be described as ingenious. Gu Weijun was not a soldier; he habitually viewed everything that happened from the perspective of a diplomat. If military operations were also seen as diplomatic means, the People's Party displayed abilities possessed only by top-tier diplomats. Chen Ke had successfully established the camps of enemy and friend. Or rather, Chen Ke had successfully forced all forces in the Far East except the United States into the camp of his enemies. As long as the People's Party did not suffer a military defeat, the Americans would not join the anti-People's Party camp.
As a diplomat, Gu Weijun also understood one thing: the number of the People's Party's enemies was currently unprecedentedly large. These enemies might be able to cause a lot of trouble for the People's Party in some aspects, but the forces that could truly interfere with the People's Party were far less powerful than imagined. The British refused to send troops, and Japan also stated that it would not take military action. The People's Party's only true enemy militarily was the Beiyang clique, which had suffered repeated defeats. The military threat the People's Party faced was even smaller than when Japan first started attacking Qingdao. At that time, it was really possible to form a coalition army composed of Britain, Japan, and Beiyang. But Beiyang refused to state its position at that time, letting this opportunity slip away easily.
Therefore, amidst everyone's praise, Gu Weijun did not get carried away, nor did he forget himself. He even had a fear in his heart that could not be driven away. Beiyang currently seemed to be like oil cooking over a fire, like flowers brocaded on silk, but in reality, it was precisely unprecedentedly isolated. Because Gu Weijun had already used up his diplomatic means, everything left had to rely on Beiyang itself. But whether Beiyang could truly accomplish great things by relying on itself, judging from the current performance, Gu Weijun also had no bottom in his heart.
"Shaochuan, do you have any brilliant views on the current matters?" After three rounds of wine, Yuan Shikai asked with a smile.
Gu Weijun hurriedly said, "President, I am just a scholar. I'm okay with receiving orders to negotiate, but I completely don't understand things outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Everything listens to the President's arrangements."
"Hehe." Hearing these appropriate words, Yuan Shikai laughed. He turned to Tang Shaoyi, "Elder Tang, Shaochuan is intelligent, no less than you."
Tang Shaoyi laughed loudly, "The waves behind the Yangtze River drive on those before; with this child, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no worries."
Everyone was an old hand, and Tang Shaoyi would absolutely not say anything wrong.
Xu Shichang smiled and said, "A few days ago, Yan Jidao resigned as Premier of the Cabinet on the grounds of illness, and the President has already granted it. Would Elder Tang be willing to condescend to the post of Vice Premier?"
"It looks like I've basked in Shaochuan's light and been promoted." Tang Shaoyi smiled extremely happily. This was indeed something to be happy about. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was not a lucrative job, and it stood at the forefront of surrendering sovereign rights and humiliating the country. If there were achievements, they belonged to the President and the Premier; if there were problems, one had to be reviled by others. To be promoted to Vice Premier of the Cabinet was a true promotion. At present, Beiyang had reached an agreement with Britain and Japan, and there would still be negotiated assistance later. Even without deliberately extorting, various "writing fees" and "ice and charcoal respect" would be enough for Tang Shaoyi to make a fortune. Moreover, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would definitely let Gu Weijun preside over it now, so Tang Shaoyi's influence in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would not be affected at all. How could he not be happy?
Seeing Tang Shaoyi answer readily, Xu Shichang turned to Gu Weijun, "Shaochuan, I originally wanted you to immediately succeed as Minister of Foreign Affairs, but out of intentions of care, the President wants you to be responsible for the full power of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs. This is not the President deliberately suppressing you, but completely out of the President's heart of caring for you. You must not misunderstand."
Gu Weijun would absolutely not misunderstand. He hurriedly replied, "I absolutely obey the President's arrangements and am deeply grateful for the President's heart of care."