Chapter 56: Selection and Being Selected (12)
Volume 5: Heading Toward · Chapter 56
The Japanese intelligence system had also built its own network within the Beiyang system. Especially with a significant number of people in Beiyang feeling envious and jealous of the new upstart Gu Weijun, news spread even faster. Upon learning of the negotiations between Beiyang and Britain, the domestic situation in Japan became extremely tense.
Those who can mix in international society are not fools. Britain and Japan are actually very clear that if Japan wants to expand its interests in China, at this stage it can only cut meat from Beiyang. This is also why Britain allowed Japan to attack Qingdao, and *only* allowed Japan to attack Qingdao. Japan knew the British intentions; the British wanted Japan to obediently be a dog. After Japan did its utmost to achieve victory, Britain would throw a bone for Japan to chew on.
"Britain's current naval power in Asia is not even as great as our Great Japanese Empire. Treating us with such an attitude is too rude." This saying had even begun to circulate within the Japanese Navy Ministry. Of course, the Japanese Navy also inherited that Japanese "ventriloquism" and would not bluntly say that Japan wanted to replace Britain's hegemony in Asia, but instead expressed its attitude in Japanese-style language like "maintaining order in the Far East for Britain."
Regarding this attitude of the Navy Ministry, the Army Ministry, which had just suffered a miserable defeat, naturally could not raise any objections. Moreover, the Army Ministry itself also opposed the Asian order dominated by Britain. As a result, the Army Ministry and the Navy Ministry rarely tacitly agreed and supported each other on this viewpoint.
The Japanese Cabinet certainly could not be foolish to this extent. Without British support, Japan would be nothing. Currently, Japan's enemy is not the British, nor even the People's Party. To maximize Japan's interests in China, they could only make a move on Beiyang. Targeting this issue, the Japanese Cabinet commissioned the intelligence department to organize an analysis. "No investigation, no right to speak." The result of the Japanese intelligence department's analysis was that since the coexistence of the People's Party and Beiyang, the People's Party had almost undertaken the political, economic, and military actions to protect China's interests. Whether it was the Quota Trade Agreement or attacking the German army in Qingdao, the People's Party did its utmost to prevent China's decline. The only thing that puzzled the Japanese intelligence department was that the People's Party did not use these actions to seize dominance in China for itself.
The Japanese Cabinet naturally understood that any action by the People's Party to seize central power would lead to a full-force backlash from the Beiyang government. Any attempt to seize power would lead to a premature rupture between the People's Party and Beiyang. If a reason had to be found for this action, it was that the People's Party avoided the outbreak of civil war more than any other Chinese force. Civil war would inevitably consume China's strength greatly, and Japan was very clear on this point. Especially now that the People's Party treated all foreign forces in China as their primary enemies, civil war could only shatter China. Even if they replaced the Beiyang forces, it did not mean that the People's Party would have the spare energy to smoothly lead the subsequent situation in China.
However, the People's Party's patience had been rewarded. With Europe plunged into war, the influence of foreign forces on China had dropped to the lowest level. Even if the People's Party launched a civil war, it would not lead to strong foreign intervention. So the People's Party appropriately adopted an offensive stance.
For Japan, the current situation was bad to the extreme. Due to the People's Party's restraint, the power of the Beiyang group had not been damaged. Compared to when the Beiyang government was first established, Yuan Shikai's power was even stronger. Strong enough to even repel Japan in land battles. Such a result led to Britain and Beiyang's forces presenting an advantage over Japan. Unless Japan completely tore its face with Britain and threw the power of the whole country into a war of aggression against China, Japan could not possibly loot a burning house. Even if Japan made such a determination and defeated Beiyang and Britain, Japan would still inevitably have to face the People's Party's offensive.
Currently, Japan had 18 divisions, with a total of 500,000 standing troops at most. Throwing these 500,000 men into the Chinese battlefield would only occupy very limited Chinese coastal cities. Even without war, the huge logistics would eat up Japan's economy. According to the intelligence collected now, China's core regions were the Central Plains regions controlled by the People's Party. With the lessons of the Kyushu Division and the Sendai Division, Japan simply did not dare to let its troops have a large-scale land war with the People's Party outside the range of naval guns.
"Are we just going to watch China's situation fluctuate drastically while the Imperial Country stands by with folded arms?" Someone in the Japanese Cabinet raised this question.
Looting a burning house is the most wonderful and most lucrative thing. Being completely unable to intervene in China's current chaotic situation, the members of the Japanese Cabinet felt as uncomfortable as if a cat was scratching their hearts.
"Gentlemen, the current situation is to solve Japan's economic problems first. Once the economic problems are solved, we can reopen our foreign issues." Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo said. At this critical moment, Takahashi Korekiyo was already considered the top choice for the next Prime Minister.
"Are we just going to let the current opportunity pass?" Japanese political elder Katsura Tarō, although no longer Prime Minister, was currently still the Minister of the Interior (Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal/Genro usually, but here text says "Minister of Civil Affairs/Home Minister" roughly? Text says "民政大臣" - likely Home Minister or similar role given context, though historically titles vary. I will translate as "Minister of Home Affairs" or just keep the context implies a high minister). Katsura Tarō was a figure strongly supported by the Army Ministry, and he felt very pity for not being able to intervene in Chinese affairs. Historically, this Prime Minister, who was driven out of office by the Japanese public in 1913 because of his hardline policies, was still the biggest hardliner in the Japanese Cabinet.
"As long as the war in Europe continues, Britain will continue to buy goods from Japan. With this income, Japan's finances can still improve. If we continue to invest in war, not only will Britain be dissatisfied with Japan, but the current fiscal revenue will also face a situation where income does not cover expenditure." Takahashi Korekiyo faced the current crisis as a financial expert, and any action that affected the direction of Japan's economy was within the scope of his opposition.
"If the People's Party seizes political power in China, how will our interests in Manchuria and Mongolia be guaranteed?" Katsura Tarō had no intention of dying down.
Takahashi Korekiyo almost wanted to look at Katsura Tarō with contempt. The so-called interests in Manchuria and Mongolia must be actual interests. Currently, Manchuria and Mongolia lacked railways. Even if mines could be opened, there were no railways to transport them to the seaport. Most importantly, wasn't it the Army Ministry represented by Katsura Tarō that shamelessly shouted about interests in Manchuria and Mongolia, making the Great Japanese Empire so passive? If the two divisions could have defeated the People's Party in the Battle of Qingdao like crushing dry weeds and smashing rotten wood, and seized Qingdao, one of the few industrial port cities in China, how could Japan face the current extremely unfavorable situation?
It was just that Takahashi Korekiyo came from a lowly background and only achieved his current status by completely shedding the spring breeze of Japan's westernization. Katsura Tarō was of royal lineage (Wait, Katsura was samurai class, not royal, but text says "皇族" - maybe implying high nobility/connection or text error. I will follow text implying high status/nobility "Duke") and was pleased to be titled a Duke because of his royal connections. It was extremely unfavorable for Takahashi Korekiyo to conflict directly with Katsura Tarō.
"Currently, the wave of factory bankruptcies is intensifying. If we cannot let factories start work quickly and let civilian materials flow rapidly, military actions can be discussed after this." Takahashi Korekiyo said to other cabinet ministers.
Other cabinet ministers certainly knew the domestic situation in Japan. Several consecutive years of sluggish exports led to soaring domestic grain prices, and Rice Riots spread throughout Japan. If the economy was not restored quickly, I am afraid the riots would turn into uprisings.
"We must absolutely not be soft on those socialists!" Katsura Tarō said viciously. As a defender of the Emperor's autocracy, Katsura Tarō could not tolerate the existence of democratic politics. In 1910, Japanese socialists and anarchists launched widespread activities against the Emperor's autocracy. Kanno Sugako explicitly pointed out that the Emperor was "the chief of economic plunder, the root of political evil, and the source of ideological superstition." In response, Katsura Tarō adopted extremely severe suppression measures. Under the trumped-up charges of "conspiring to assassinate the Emperor," he carried out a massive roundup of socialists and innocently sentenced 24 people to death. Among them, Kōtoku Shūsui and Kanno Sugako, 12 people in total, were successively hanged, and the other 12 were commuted to life imprisonment. This was the famous "High Treason Incident." With this political achievement, Katsura Tarō established his political status. Anyone who opposed the labor movement supported Katsura Tarō.
"The political position of the People's Party is socialism, and as far as I know, many Japanese non-nationals have defected to the People's Party. Many even participated in the Battle of Qingdao. The families of these non-nationals must absolutely not be spared lightly." Katsura Tarō turned the topic to a side favorable to himself, "Moreover, the Minister to China suggested getting rid of the People's Party Chairman Chen Ke. Only by getting rid of this person can the situation in China be changed. The Army Ministry's intelligence department is also discussing this issue."
The members of the Japanese Cabinet looked at each other after hearing this suggestion, and a thought floated in many people's minds, "Katsura Tarō is crazy!"
Directly assassinating the leader of a Chinese political force would inevitably leave traces regardless of success or failure. At that time, Japan would nakedly expose its attitude towards China. Not to mention anything else, there were many Japanese merchants within the area controlled by the People's Party, and the People's Party would absolutely not turn a blind eye to these people. In a better scenario, these people's properties would be confiscated. Thinking of the worst, if the People's Party arrested these people in the name of espionage, countless lives would be lost. If Japanese commoners died, they died, but Japanese merchants were existences with some background. At that time, who in the country would be willing to take responsibility?
However, before the cabinet ministers could speak, Katsura Tarō sneered: "Gentlemen, killing Chen Ke does not necessarily require us to do it ourselves. The People's Party has so many enemies, there are thousands of people who want his life. There are plenty of candidates."
"Enough!" Takahashi Korekiyo finally couldn't help but shout. The Japanese military forces had a huge influence on Japanese politics because they had repeatedly gambled on the national destiny and succeeded. But what Takahashi Korekiyo was most disgusted with were these military representatives. War has victories and defeats; it is impossible to always be victorious. Just one failure in Qingdao blocked the possibility of Japan continuing to intervene in Chinese affairs. If they continued to blow things up and put all of Japan's energy into war, the only possibility of saving the Japanese economy would be lost. At that time, the accumulation of decades after the Meiji Restoration in Japan would only turn into flowing water. Japan might even be reduced to a British colony again.
Thinking only of victory, but completely failing to consider the results after defeat, this was the attitude of the military. Both the Navy and the Army were like this.
Hearing Takahashi Korekiyo's rebuke, Katsura Tarō glared. A baron from a lowly background actually dared to be so rude to a Duke; this was unimaginable in old Japan. Even in current Japan, it was extremely incredible.
However, Saionji Kinmochi, the bigwig of the Seiyūkai, coughed, "Let's discuss the economic issues first." The power behind him was strong, and he finally avoided the continued expansion of this quarrel.