赤色黎明 (English Translation)

— "The horizon before dawn shall be red as blood"

Chapter 12: The Kanto Tragedy 11

Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 12

August 30, 1923, Japanese Prime Minister Yamamoto Gonnohyoe convened a cabinet meeting to discuss the Lüda issue. Led by Tanaka Giichi, the Ministry of War collectively imitated Xu Shu entering Cao Cao's camp—saying nothing. The entire meeting lacked fierce debate, instead appearing lifeless.

Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo went back and forth with just two words: no money.

Foreign Minister Makino Nobuaki had been viciously insulted by People's Party Propaganda Minister Zhang Yu in Paris a few years ago, and he personally regarded this as a humiliation. Regarding whether to go to war with China, Makino Nobuaki's heart naturally supported war. However, just as Zhang Yu had maliciously mocked back then, Japan could currently rely only on the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. If a full-scale war broke out between China and Japan, let alone holding the Lüda region, Japan feared that even Korea would be completely lost. Makino Nobuaki reported the diplomatic results obtained from Britain to the cabinet.

"The British resolutely oppose China resolving the Lüda issue by military means." Every time Makino Nobuaki mentioned the British, he felt a faint displeasure in his heart. As a 62-year-old veteran diplomat this year, having a young man more than twenty years his junior point at his nose and mock him saying "Japan goes crying to its British daddy whenever there's trouble," Makino Nobuaki truly could not forget Zhang Yu's meanness and malice.

The faces of the cabinet members looked much better, but Makino Nobuaki continued, "The British side also explicitly stated that if a military conflict between China and Japan occurs only in the Lüda region, Britain will not conduct any substantive intervention."

Hearing that "British Daddy" refused to help, the faces of the Japanese cabinet members immediately turned ugly again. Tanaka Giichi snickered inwardly; the Ministry of War didn't believe the British would help at all. Being able to get Britain to publicly issue a statement opposing China's use of force was enough to show that Makino Nobuaki's work was outstanding. Of course, Tanaka Giichi would absolutely not praise Makino Nobuaki like this.

"The British stated that if China takes the initiative to attack Korea, they will submit the matter of China invading Japan to the League of Nations." Makino Nobuaki brought out his greatest diplomatic achievement.

This could be considered good news; at least the British expressed their adherence to the bottom line of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. However, Makino Nobuaki soon brought out new bad news, "The British privately stated that if Japan shells Chinese coastal cities, Britain also will not accept Japan blockading China's maritime trade routes."

Tanaka Giichi could be considered quite self-restrained. Although a mocking smile appeared on his face, he forced himself to hold back and didn't make a sound. But just because War Minister Tanaka Giichi didn't speak didn't mean no one wanted to drag him into the water. Minister of Communications Inukai Tsuyoshi opened his mouth and said, "Does Tanaka-kun have anything to say?"

"No," Tanaka Giichi immediately replied.

"Does the Ministry of War have no thoughts on this at all?" Inukai Tsuyoshi continued.

"This is a diplomatic issue; what thoughts can the Ministry of War have?" Tanaka Giichi lightly pushed the responsibility completely away, as if the Ministry of War never interfered in Japanese diplomacy.

The cabinet members were all incredibly shrewd fellows; how could they not see the Ministry of War's thoughts? Everyone looked at each other, mostly with expressions of being unable to speak. No matter who it was, they all understood one thing: no one present had the ability to bear this responsibility.

Japan could not give up any land it had obtained or territory it occupied. The Ministry of War was once majestic, but after the current Cabinet Prime Minister Yamamoto Gonnohyoe was ruthlessly hit by Yamagata Aritomo using the "Siemens Incident", the Ministry of Navy's reputation was swept away, reaching a point where it could almost not be maintained. But the Ministry of War's victory did not last long. After the disastrous defeat caused by attacking Qingdao controlled by the People's Party, they also encountered fierce opposition. Having lost over a hundred thousand men around the Northeast China campaign, the Ministry of War's reputation was also swept away.

For the current Japan, any government that "forfeited sovereignty and humiliated the nation" could not have a good end. Even if the failure was due to insufficient strength, it would lead to the collapse of the entire faction. The Japanese public could not understand the issue of the expiration of the "lease term" for the Lüda region. Even if they knew, they would not allow the Lushun Fortress, which was seized at the cost of tens of thousands of Japanese soldiers' lives, to be obediently handed over to the People's Party. If it was just to pointlessly occupy it for these ten-plus years, why pay the price of so many human lives back then?

Tanaka Giichi was very smart; he knew when not to speak. And he ordered the Ministry of War to be equally silent. According to Japanese custom, the person who speaks must bear the responsibility. Or rather, the Ministry of Navy, which was now gradually dominating Japanese politics, had to bear the responsibility.

Yamamoto Gonnohyoe lowered his gaze. He had discussed this matter with the Ministry of Navy many times. The Ministry of Navy's strategic deduction results were not discouraging. If the entire Combined Fleet were placed in the Lüda region to block the People's Party's attack with fierce artillery fire, the Ministry of Navy believed there was still a chance of victory. But this involved another problem, which was also the most fatal problem. Naval sorties required a large amount of money. With the fiscal budget provided by Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo, the Navy would exhaust the entire country's military budget with just three months of sorties. Even if the Ministry of War tightened their belts one by one and didn't eat or drink, if this war exceeded three months, they would have to issue national bonds again to sustain the war. Holding Lushun might maintain Japan's face. But such a war could not have any benefits.

Originally, Japan hoped that Britain would intervene in China based on the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, but the British attitude greatly disappointed Yamamoto Gonnohyoe. Britain could not provide any support at all. At least if war broke out in the Lüda region, Britain could not provide any support.

"Are the British not prepared to join the mediation?" Yamamoto Gonnohyoe asked Foreign Minister Makino Nobuaki.

"The British have clearly stated that if it is merely a military conflict in the Lüda region, they will not intervene in the war." Makino Nobuaki answered very crisply. At such a time, any inaccurate hint would lead to catastrophic consequences, and Makino Nobuaki was very clear about this.

"Then what is the attitude of the Chinese side?" Yamamoto Gonnohyoe asked. The Japanese government had already sent a delegation to contact China.

Makino Nobuaki did not personally go to negotiate with China. Firstly, the negotiation with Britain was more important. Secondly, Makino Nobuaki didn't want to see Zhang Yu's face ever again. "The Chinese side's reply is that if there is a clear timetable for troop withdrawal, they can discuss the withdrawal issue with us. If there is no clear timetable for troop withdrawal, they will not have any contact with us regarding this issue. The Chinese side also explicitly stated that if it reaches December 31, 1923, and no withdrawal agreement has been reached between China and Japan, they will unilaterally take military action."

After Makino Nobuaki finished speaking about the current situation without ambiguity, the Japanese cabinet fell into a deathly silence. Facing the new Chinese government, which was completely different from the Manchu Qing and the Beiyang, Japan was truly at its wit's end. The People's Party used military power as a backing to push political policies, and the Japanese government found itself helpless. Theoretically, military victory could determine everything, but in terms of the current situation, the Japanese army could sustain the war, but could not win it.

Yamamoto Gonnohyoe turned to look at Takahashi Korekiyo. "Takahashi-kun, is the European and American bond market willing to accept Japanese war bonds this time?" During the Russo-Japanese War last time, it was thanks to Takahashi Korekiyo's efforts that a large amount of war bonds were issued, allowing Japan to obtain funds for victory. In the European war that ended a few years ago, Japan obtained huge profits. It even turned from a debtor nation into a creditor nation in one fell swoop. If it was borrowing debt, Japan could still afford it. More importantly, once foreign countries were willing to accept Japanese war bonds, it meant that Japan could get foreign support.

"The United States resolutely does not accept any war bonds related to Japan and China. The speculators in the US market are asking for prices that are too low and completely mismatched with the returns of this war. The attitudes of the British and French markets are very ambiguous. Investors now value German bonds more and are not willing to participate in new risks at all." Takahashi Korekiyo originally opposed meaningless wars. After hitting walls everywhere despite his efforts, he spoke very directly.

The faces of the cabinet members became even uglier. If they could not get foreign support, the prospects of this war would become even bleaker. Facing the terrible situation before them, all Japanese cabinet members could only be passively silent or actively silent.

After a long time, Yamamoto Gonnohyoe asked Tanaka Giichi, "Tanaka-kun, what thoughts does the Ministry of War have on the prospects of the war?"

Tanaka Giichi knew that this was exactly the time for him to speak, so he answered straightforwardly, "The Ministry of War has insufficient troops. The Ministry of War's troops have already been exhausted in Korea. Therefore, we cannot bring out any troops to defend the Lushun Fortress to the death. Moreover, the Ministry of War has made several deductions regarding such a war from top to bottom, and truly cannot find any possibility of victory."

"Is the Ministry of War just giving up like this?" Yamamoto Gonnohyoe asked. Although this sounded like a questioning, the Ministry of Navy really had no confidence at this time. Since warships couldn't go ashore, a war on land that was only maintained within the range of naval guns was meaningless. Moreover, how many shells did naval guns have? Not to mention that the barrels of naval guns had a lifespan limit and simply could not fire non-stop like the army's artillery.

"Now the Army can only sustain combat by relying on sea transport, so whatever the Army says is meaningless. Does Your Excellency the Prime Minister want to start a full-scale war with China? Do you want to send the Army from Korea and fight all the way to the Lüda region?" Tanaka Giichi asked back.

All cabinet members except for the Ministry of War faction looked at Tanaka Giichi with a look of disgust. In terms of invading China, the Ministry of War was once the biggest advocate. But now Tanaka Giichi was actually disguising himself as an anti-war pioneer. If not for the Army's incompetence, the entire Northeast China should have been under Japanese control by now. With the current situation, Japan simply did not have the ability to launch a full-scale war against China. Choosing war meant no possibility of victory. Choosing peace would lead to strong pressure from within Japan. The Japanese cabinet members looked at each other one by one. No one could say a word.

The cabinet meeting could only choose to reconvene in three days. Because tomorrow, which was September 1st, Crown Prince Hirohito was going to hold a garden party. Many members of the cabinet had to attend.