Chapter 13: The Kanto Tragedy 12
Volume 6: Rising and Falling · Chapter 13
On August 31, 1923, Okamura Yasuji entertained two important guests: Nagata Tetsuzan and Obata Toshirō.
"Tomorrow, Crown Prince Hirohito will host a garden party to entertain foreign ministers and cabinet ministers. I have been ordered by His Highness the Crown Prince to go to the Imperial Palace to serve as a guard," Okamura Yasuji said slowly as he poured tea for the other two. The tea leaves were a gift from Kita Ikki to Okamura Yasuji, much more fragrant than Japanese tea. However, the three of them drank it slowly like plain water, not feeling anything special about it.
In 1921, all three had visited Europe as military officers and formed a secret pact in Baden-Baden, Germany. They swore to oppose the Choshu clique in the army, overthrow Tanaka Giichi, who was already faintly becoming the leader of the army, and support the Crown Prince's ascension. When this covenant was formed, the person standing guard at the door was Tojo Hideki. In addition to these three core members, they also gathered young talents who did not belong to the Choshu domain, such as Umezu Yoshijirō, Yamashita Tomoyuki, Isogai Rensuke, Matsui Iwane, Nakamura Kotaro, Nakajima Kesago, and Shimomura Sadamu, forming a secret organization.
Over the past few years, this small organization had fully utilized the chaos in Japan to strive to expand its scale. Kita Ikki's ability to return to Japan was certainly because someone in the Japanese upper echelons wanted to use him, but the efforts of this small organization could not be ignored either.
If anyone else heard that Okamura Yasuji had been specifically summoned by the Crown Prince, they would have long felt jealous, but Nagata Tetsuzan and Obata Toshirō had no such reaction at all. Nagata Tetsuzan said frankly, "Then I'll leave it to you, Okamura-kun. Now we must stabilize the Crown Prince's position and absolutely cannot let those with ulterior motives pull any tricks."
Emperor Meiji could be considered a rare one among Japanese emperors over the past thousand years; even if he couldn't be said to hold great power, he could still influence Japan's political situation. However, Japan had a strong tradition of a figurehead monarch. Back then, a group of local feudal lords used the Emperor's name to get rid of the Tokugawa Shogunate, and then they wanted to continue to completely sideline the Emperor. The guys in the Ministry of War paid lip service to loyalty to the Emperor, but their actions often ran counter to it. For example, the late Yamagata Aritomo completely opposed the current Emperor Taisho, and was extremely detested by Taisho. But it wasn't just Yamagata Aritomo who wanted to completely sideline the Emperor; the Ministry of War, the Ministry of Navy, the Cabinet, and the bureaucratic group stood on almost the same ground in this regard.
In all fairness, Okamura Yasuji, Nagata Tetsuzan, and Obata Toshirō might not be such loyal subjects to the Emperor either, but with the victorious experience of the Meiji era, if they could effectively use the Emperor's name, it would be of great benefit for seizing power.
Regarding Nagata Tetsuzan's exhortation, Okamura Yasuji slowly replied, "I will definitely do my best on this point."
Obata Toshirō was worried about something else. "Okamura-kun, from what you can see, can this person Kita Ikki be used by us?"
Okamura Yasuji slowly shook his head. "This person can absolutely not be used by us. He has been in China for too long; I can only say he has become more like a Chinese person. However, Kita Ikki's understanding is far beyond that of ordinary Japanese people, which is a pity."
"If the situation continues like this, Japan's opportunities and national destiny from the Meiji era will completely disappear," Nagata Tetsuzan said decisively. Unlike other Japanese soldiers, Nagata Tetsuzan did not brag about the Yamato race or Bushido spirit at all, but hit the nail on the head regarding the essence of Japan's rise: "Opportunity and National Destiny."
Japan's rise was completely built on the foundation of China's weakness. Coupled with the scramble for the Far East by European and American powers, Japan was able to suddenly flourish in such a situation. However, a China capable of defending itself would completely shatter Japan's opportunities and national destiny. Nagata Tetsuzan saw this very clearly.
Such a smart guy as Okamura Yasuji certainly fully agreed with Nagata Tetsuzan's view. He continued to speak slowly and methodically, "I think Kita Ikki's meaning is very clear. He wants China and Japan to form an alliance. Utilizing the conflict between China and the European and American powers to expand greater space for Japan. I am not optimistic about this idea at all. An equal relationship can absolutely not exist between China and Japan. I think you gentlemen would also absolutely not accept a Japan that lives under China."
The other two nodded seriously. Japan had waited so hard for the current opportunity, but the sudden rise of the People's Party completely disrupted Japan's original plans. Nagata Tetsuzan was a recognized talent in the Japanese Ministry of War. After graduating from the Army War College, Nagata Tetsuzan was immediately assigned to the Department of the Inspector General of Military Training. Soon, he revealed his talent and was the main drafter of the "Military Education Order." The then Chief of the Department (equal in status to the Vice Minister of War and the Vice Chief of the General Staff), Lieutenant General Hongo Fusataro, was greatly surprised and full of praise when he saw that this fledgling Lieutenant Nagata could actually take on such an epoch-making grand plan that covered the education of the entire army.
In 1913, Nagata was promoted to Captain. In the ten years since then, he was sent to Europe three times, for a total of six years. He was an extremely intelligent person with a strong thirst for knowledge. coupled with a solid foundation in German, it was during the First World War. He paid close attention to the war situation, and at the same time conducted in-depth comparative research on the strategic resources, industrial standards, and the total mobilization system of various countries that invested their manpower, financial resources, and material resources to exert the function of total war. In 1920, he submitted a content-rich "National General Mobilization Opinion" to the Japanese Army authorities, which was praised by General Ugaki Kazushige, who served as Minister of War twice from the late Taisho to the early Showa period, as even more brilliant than the total war theory of German General Ludendorff.
But nothing could ignore reality. After the People's Party curbed the trend of China's sinking, this "National General Mobilization Opinion" became a joke. Even with the limit of Japan's power that could be mobilized by this plan, it would only be 8 million troops. The People's Party maintained a standing army of 5.5 million in peacetime. Okamura Yasuji was a China expert, and the results of his investigation made Nagata Tetsuzan feel painful. The Chinese army had a three-year service period, and retired soldiers received quite good treatment. China's reserves and local militia organizations, according to the mobilization ratio of 4% for ordinary countries, once a full-scale war broke out between China and Japan, China's population of 600 million could mobilize up to 24 million troops with military experience. The sheer number was three times that of Japan.
Nagata Tetsuzan was no fool; he would not believe the nonsense that one Japanese soldier could fight at least two Chinese soldiers. Even if a 1:2 war of attrition could be carried out between China and Japan, if all 8 million Japanese troops died in China in exchange for the lives of 16 million Chinese soldiers, China would still have 8 million troops in hand. If Japan lost 8 million able-bodied men, China wouldn't even need to take the initiative to attack; a country with a population of less than 60 million like Japan would collapse on its own.
And what the People's Party displayed was not just powerful mobilization capability, but also that determination to fight to the end. The reason why Nagata Tetsuzan, Okamura Yasuji, and Obata Toshirō wanted to establish a strong emperor system was largely influenced by China. East Asian countries found it easier to understand the concept of a strong leader. Nagata Tetsuzan firmly believed that the People's Party Chairman Chen Ke ruling over China was one of the biggest reasons for China's rise in such a short period. A powerful leader could naturally lead a country onto the correct path. Viewing China from a Japanese perspective, once Chen Ke issued the order to fight to the last man, the Chinese army would carry out this order to the end. The huge disadvantage brought by the population gap between Japan and China would be completely exposed in front of such incomparable determination.
Moreover, another problem was Chen Ke's age. This Chinese leader was too young. In 1923, he was only 43 years old, four years older than Nagata Tetsuzan and Okamura Yasuji, and five years older than Obata Toshirō. Such a person would have at least 20 more years of ruling time. If he lived to be 84 like Yamagata Aritomo who died the year before last, then he could still wield power in China for 40 years. Although anyone could make mistakes, based on Chen Ke's performance so far, Nagata Tetsuzan did not dare to have such fantasies.
Every time he compared the situation between China and Japan, Nagata Tetsuzan felt a sense of despair. This sense of powerlessness brought by despair instead ignited the passion of Nagata Tetsuzan and the others. Now there was a very "traitorous" view within the Japanese upper echelons. Those defeatists even thought that if Japan had not persecuted China so excessively in the Treaty of Shimonoseki, if there had been no Eight-Nation Alliance invasion of China bringing great humiliation to China, then it might very well still be the Manchu court on stage now. Without the People's Party led by Chen Ke, facing such a weak and internally conflicted China, Japan could still easily gain the upper hand. From this perspective, Japan's rise only served to stimulate China.
This kind of remark seemed full of mockery towards China, but in essence, it was a truly defeatist attitude. Nagata Tetsuzan believed that no matter how much luck and national destiny played a part in Japan's rise, it was also the result of countless Japanese soldiers risking their lives. Those guys who bowed their heads and admitted defeat now, pushing everything onto some unseen will of heaven, should all be punished by heaven.
Nagata Tetsuzan said seriously, "Okamura-kun, please make it clear to His Highness Hirohito no matter what, China is by no means invincible. As long as Japan is united as one, we are not without opportunities. Tanaka Giichi is certainly unreliable, but there are definitely people in the Ministry of War who are truly working for the country."
Obata Toshirō nodded repeatedly, but what he said seemed unrelated to this. "It seems we must make concessions on the Lüda matter, but absolutely no retreat can be made regarding Korea. How does Kita Ikki view this matter?"
"Chen Ke shows no signs of being confused at all. Kita Ikki firmly believes that if we do not send troops from Korea, China will absolutely not take the initiative to attack Korea," Okamura Yasuji said with a hint of dissatisfaction characteristic of an egoist. "So no matter what the fighting looks like in the Lüda region, it is impossible to trigger foreign intervention."
This answer made the three outstanding Japanese soldiers very resentful. The People's Party was as experienced and cunning as a poisonous snake hiding deep in a hole. Any external changes seemed unable to make them lose their bearings. On this point, Japan had no opportunity to exploit at all. To finish off China, there would have to be a worldwide siege like the Eight-Nation Alliance, but China simply did not give Japan such an opportunity. The British were unwilling to pull chestnuts out of the fire, and as for the American attitude towards Japan, what they were doing now was comprehensively suppressing the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
Nagata Tetsuzan didn't want to waste words either. He asked Okamura Yasuji, "What do the young officers think?"
"Very dissatisfied," replied Okamura Yasuji, who was in charge of intelligence work. "Dissatisfaction with the Choshu domain is the mainstream. Casualties in Korea are so high, and the morale of the troops is getting lower and lower. The lower the fighting will, the worse the combat effectiveness of the troops; the worse the combat effectiveness, the more people die. The more people die, the lower the morale. This is already a vicious cycle. Without a complete change in the system, there will be no solution. So I am very interested in Kita Ikki's views. No matter how absurd his starting point is, this person has real substance in terms of rebuilding the Japanese order. At least he grasped one point, which is to overthrow the zaibatsu and focus on grassroots construction."
"Grassroots construction?" Nagata Tetsuzan sneered. "The Seiyukai, the political party factions, and that Inukai Tsuyoshi are still shouting for universal suffrage! Is this Japan's grassroots construction? The People's Party makes sense on this matter. If universal suffrage is simply opened up, it will be whoever has money who can take the stage. In the end, it's just the zaibatsu changing their brand to come on stage. Is it capital controlling power, or power controlling capital? This is the essential question. And this power, does it come from the people's pursuit of money and capital, or from the state's pursuit of productivity development? This is an even bigger question."
Borrowing the wisdom of the People's Party was a common occurrence recently in such a small group. Okamura Yasuji could even recite large sections of many People's Party documents. Modern industrial countries were all huge organizations that integrated the entire country into the state capital operating system, and no industrial country could bypass the issue of people's power.
"In the final analysis, Japan's power must be in the hands of patriots. None of those rich people are worth trusting," Nagata Tetsuzan said loudly.
"I have already made arrangements for these issues within the scope of my authority," Okamura Yasuji replied slowly. "We need time; what we lack most is time."
"Then let Tanaka Giichi go mess around for now. We must gather our strength within the army," Nagata Tetsuzan replied.
"Then are we going to Korea? We absolutely cannot lose Korea now. The Ministry of War actually acquiesced to the withdrawal regarding the Lüda matter this time, but what if the Ministry of Navy expands the war completely?" Obata Toshirō asked.
This question was indeed an extremely annoying matter. Japan could not afford a full-scale war; anyone who wasn't a fool knew that. The Ministry of Navy seemed to never engage in meaningless wars, but now that the Ministry of Navy was in power, they were forced by domestic public opinion to a point where they really couldn't make any concessions. Even if the Ministry of Navy smashed the pot and acted like a coward, the People's Party would still attack the Lüda region without hesitation. If the Ministry of Navy, under strong domestic public opinion pressure, jumped over the wall like a desperate dog and used the navy to attack Chinese coastal cities, expanding the scale of the war from the Lüda region to a full-scale war, it would instead be an extremely dangerous matter.
Although Tanaka Giichi was a big bastard, in terms of vision, he ordered the Ministry of War not to speak on this matter and also minimized the war clamor originating from the Ministry of War as much as possible. In terms of political wisdom, he indeed did not disgrace his status as the head of the Army.
"To win the war, we must avoid war," Obata Toshirō said with some difficulty. Back then, the Beiyang Fleet forced Japan to the point of suffocation. At that time, Japan was united as one and finally got rid of the Beiyang Fleet. Now it seemed that Japan had to sleep on brushwood and taste gall again.
Nagata Tetsuzan said with a cold face, "On this point, please make it clear to His Highness Hirohito, Okamura-kun. Tanaka Giichi's current actions are for personal goals. And although we also support doing this, we are truly doing it for the future of the country."
"Please rest assured on this point, Nagata-kun," Okamura Yasuji answered very seriously.